Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter
A MAJORITY of registered voters in St. Andrew East have said they want their sitting member of parliament (MP), Dr. St. Aubyn Bartlett, to be replaced, according to the findings of the most recent Gleaner-commissioned survey conducted by pollster Bill Johnson.
Fifty-two per cent of the electorate in this constituency told John-son and his team that "someone else" should be elected as MP. The constituency is made up of lower-class communities such as Jarrett Lane, Back Bush and August Town - all political enclaves - and middle/upper-middle class communities like Mon and Beverley Hills.
Only 17 per cent of the voters believed Bartlett, a veterinarian, deserved to be re-elected, and 31 per cent were uncertain whether he deserved to be returned to office. In addition, of the persons who identified Bartlett as their MP, 44 per cent had an unfavourable opinion of the first-time legislator and a mere 15 per cent viewed him favourably.
Bartlett, who won the seat with a 502-vote margin over the People's National Party's (PNP) Colin Campbell in 2002, is currently trailing contender Professor Trevor Munroe by six percentage points in responses by constituents about which candidate they would "most want to win" if an election were called now.
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) MP's slide in electoral fortune has impacted negatively on the party's standing. The PNP seemingly has clawed back ground lost in the 2002 general election, and is now positioned beside the JLP, Johnson and his team found. According to the survey findings, the PNP and the JLP would each receive 29 per cent voter support if an election were held today.
Sixteen per cent of the 480 persons interviewed on March 10 and 11 were either uncertain or refused to state for whom they would vote, while little over a quarter said they would not vote in the general election that is constitutionally due this year.
The survey has an error margin of plus or minus five per cent.
Constituents cited reasons for their disillusionment with Bartlett including: 'does nothing' (38 per cent); 'absentee landlord' (29 per cent); and 'not performing' (13 per cent).
But despite their strong disapproval of his candidacy, 29 per cent of voters indicated their willingness to re-elect Bartlett based on their support for the JLP.
The survey found that an equal number - 24 per cent - of respondents usually or always voted for the PNP or the JLP. Therefore, the fate of either party rests with the nine per cent of swing voters who told Johnson's team they have voted for both parties in the past.
Compared to Bartlett, the PNP's Munroe polled better with modest figures: 30 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of him; 22 per cent had an unfavourable opinion and 25 per cent (compared to Bartlett's 23 per cent) said they had seen Munroe in the constituency within the last six months.
Lead reduced
Dr. Bartlett won the Mona division in the 2002 election by 12 per cent, but this lead has been reduced to two per cent according to the survey.
For the PNP, however, which has several strongholds in the Papine division, their candidate may want to do a lot more work in that division if they are to succeed in the seat. The PNP won that division by five per cent in 2002 and Mr. Johnson's polls indicates that this support has slipped to two per cent.
"His ratings are worse than [United States President] George Bush," Johnson commented.
DR. ST AUBYN BARTLETT: MP blames internal rivalry
DR. ST. AUBYN Bartlett believes that his current standings in opinion polls is as a result of scuffles among Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) supporters concerning his candidacy.
Despite being unaware of the findings of the recent Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls, Bartlett comments that "friendly fire is a dangerous fire, it can damage you."
A veterinarian by profession, his name seems to be called more in horse racing than political circles. Yet, Bartlett was one of the few politicians to pull a stunning upset in the 2002 General Election. He unseated two-time Member of Parliament (MP) Colin Campbell to take the St. Andrew Eastern seat. In doing so he avenged the 1997 defeat his brother, Edmund Bartlett, suffered at the hands of Campbell, and returned the seat to the JLP.
"You have elected me to serve and represent you as Member of Parliament and I hereby give you my undertaking to serve with transparency, diligence and with a high level of integrity," Bartlett told his constituents in St. Andrew Eastern in a thank-you letter published in this newspaper 11 days after the 2002 General Election.
However, months shy of five years since being elected, Bartlett is being labelled as an absentee MP and non-performer by many of his constituents. Bartlett refutes this, claiming he has "represented well".
In fact, according to the most recent Bill Johnson polls, just 23 per cent of his constituency has seen him in the last six months. The polls, conducted on March 10 and 11, also indicate that the incumbent MP is locked in a head-to-head tussle with the People's National Party candidate Professor Trevor Munroe.
Concerns
The results mirror concerns that have been expressed by JLP factions in the constituency who have charged that he is a non-performer and should be replaced if the party is to retain the seat.
"Were it not for the kind of battering that I took over the last couple of months, I would probably have been better placed," he tells The Sunday Gleaner. "These things do create an image on people's minds," the embattled MP adds.
Yet, amid the turmoil, Bartlett believes he can retain the St. Andrew Eastern seat.
"I am confident that I will retain the seat for the party...I expect to win by in excess of 1,000 votes," he asserts.
- D.L.
PROFESSOR TREVOR MUNROE: Record of socio-political activism in Jamaica
HE WAS not only bruised for workers' rights - he was also battered.
A trade unionist and politician, professor Trevor Munroe has for years been a social and political activist. These days, Munroe, a professor in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona campus, is seeking to become the next Member of Parliament for St. Andrew Eastern.
"My mission as your MP will be to stand up for the interests of all my constituents regardless of party, and, indeed, of all our people without fear or favour," Professor Munroe tells constituents in one of his campaign brochures.
Born in 1944, the year Jamaica gained Universal Adult Suffrage, Munroe for years stood out as a controversial figure in Jamaican politics.
A Rhodes Scholar, who studied at Oxford University, Munroe entered politics and also founded a trade union, the University and Allied Workers' Union, initially to represent janitorial and service staff at the UWI.
He also, in 1974, founded the Workers' Liberation League, a pro-Soviet Marxist-Leninist organisation. It was rebranded the Workers' Party of Jamaica in 1978 and Munroe served as its general secretary.
WPJ died in 1990
However, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the WPJ died in 1990.
Munroe adopted a more moderate political ideology, and following the 1997 General Election, he was appointed an independent senator by Prime Minister P.J. Patterson.
In 2002, he was reappointed to the Senate as a member of the People's National Party, whose ticket he now runs on in the St. Andrew Eastern constituency.
- D.L.
