Photo by Rosemary Parkinson
A view of the business and industrial district of Trinidad's capital, Port-of-Spain. Electors will go to the polls to choose a new government tomorrow.

PORT-OF-SPAIN (Reuters):

A new power broker could emerge in Trinidad and Tobago when the energy-rich Caribbean country, whose politics have long been divided along racial lines, holds a general election on Monday.

Many opinion polls have shown the ruling People's National Movement, or PNM, returning to power in the former British colony.

The PNM garners most of its support from blacks and it is expected to fare better than its traditional rival, the United National Congress or UNC, which draws most of its support from Trinidadians of Indian descent.

Both parties, however, have been hurt by corruption and a growing wave of discontent with politics as usual across the English-speaking Caribbean.

Some polls have shown the Congress of the People, or COP, a multiracial party founded just a year ago by former central bank governor Winston Dookeran, posing a serious challenge to both the PNM and UNC.

The COP, which analysts say has won most of its support among Trinidad's growing middle class, was running neck-and-neck with the PNM in one recent poll.

The parties are vying for a simple majority of seats in the newly expanded 41-member parliament to govern for the next five years.

But even if the COP picks up only a handful of seats, many believe it could become a force to be reckoned with in a country whose natural gas and energy resources have made it one of the wealthiest nations in the Caribbean.

"If Dookeran winds up with six or eight seats he could actually end up holding the balance of power in the country. It could be pretty remarkable," said Ken Boodhoo, a political analyst at Florida International University.

'EAST-WEST'

Lower-class blacks and Indo-Trinidadians are still likely to vote along traditional party lines in the country, highlighting its so-called "east-west corridor," Boodhoo said.

By building support among the burgeoning middle class, the COP managed to cross ethnic barriers, while positioning itself as the party of a new and more prosperous future, he said.

"Trinidad is becoming more of a middle-class society. There is a significant amount of affluence," said Boodhoo. "As you become more affluent, class is more important than race and ethnicity."

Last year, Trinidad and Tobago posted economic growth of 12 per cent. It is the world's fifth-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas and the single largest supplier of LNG to the United States.

Economic good times have been tempered by a surge in crime, however, and by complaints that energy earnings have failed to filter down to Trinidad's many poor.

Police and government officials say gangs have expanded because of Trinidad's growing role as a transshipment point for South American cocaine, even as unemployment has hit record lows in a country with a minimum wage of about $1.50 per hour.

Political violence is rare in Trinidad, but headlines late last month showed why many fear the country is becoming more like its crime-prone Caribbean neighbour, Jamaica.

David St. Clair, a 41-year-old parliamentary candidate with the COP, was severely beaten after complaining about death threats he received from men demanding extortion money to allow him to campaign in Laventille, a notoriously violent slum on the eastern outskirts of the capital, newspapers said.

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