THE GOVERNING People's National Party (PNP) has a slight lead over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the 15 constituencies in the Corporate Area of Kingston and St. Andrew, according to the latest public opinion poll commissioned by The Gleaner and done by Don Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd..
There are three constituencies in Kingston and 12 in St. Andrew, with the PNP now controlling two in Kingston and eight in St. Andrew; and the JLP having one in Kingston and four in St. Andrew. Kingston Western is held by the JLP, with Kingston Central and Kingston East and Port Royal both being held by the PNP.
In St. Andrew, the PNP holds West Rural, Western, East Central, South Western, Southern, South-Eastern, Eastern, and East Rural. The JLP has West Central, North Eastern, North Central and North Western.
The poll was conducted between March 22 and April 8, 2002 and involved interviews with 1,177 people, aged 18 years and over in more than 75 communities islandwide. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 per cent.
Prime Minister P.J. Patterson whose PNP won the general election of December 18, 1997 has stated that he will call the general election this year.
None of the polls conducted by the Don Anderson team during the last 15 months has given the PNP a real comfort level in its chances of achieving its fourth consecutive five-year term in Govern-ment.
Indeed, since December 2000, the JLP has enjoyed a comfortable lead in all the polls, with the exception of that conducted in January 2002, when the PNP established a one per cent lead over the JLP.
There is a widely-held view that the party that carries the western parishes stands a good chance of also winning the general election. For this reason, the information from this poll has been analysed by parish groups - Kingston and St. Andrew, the western parishes, the eastern parishes and the central parishes.
A total of 21.2 per cent of all persons interviewed in Kingston and St. Andrew said they will vote for the PNP, compared to 18.9 per cent who said they will vote for the JLP. The PNP then has a lead of 2.3 per cent over the JLP, its main rival, in the 15 constituencies of Kingston and St. Andrew.
This means that there is a very high level of non-commitment at this stage, with over 54 per cent of all persons interviewed saying they are either undecided or have no intention of voting in the elections.
A total of 5.7 per cent of all persons interviewed say they will vote for the new party - the United People's Party (UPP) which is headed by Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas, attorney and former talk-show host.
The National Democratic Movement (NDM) has less than one per cent support in Kingston and St. Andrew and does appear to be a spent force at this time.
Tomorrow: Which party is leading in central parishes?
