Low confidence was further exacerbated by the dampened state of the Trinidadian economy.

The central bank has predicted local economic growth of flat to one per cent this year compared to a GDP growth rate of 3.5 per cent for 2008.

IMF projection is for 0.5 per cent growth in the economy in 2009.

The sentiments expressed by local investors were also reciprocated in the regional markets, namely, Jamaica and Barbados.

This was evident in the performance of the local and regional indices for the first half of 2009 as highlighted in Table 1 (see insert).

The first quarter decline experienced by the Trinidad indices continued into the second quarter with the TTSE composite ending 7.51 per cent down for the half year and the TTSE All T and T Index down 6.4 per cent.

Barbados witnessed a similar fate with the BSE composite and BSE local ending the period down 8.29 per cent and 6.87 per cent, respectively.

Last year, the local market benefited from the euphoria surrounding the Royal Bank of Canada takeover of Royal Bank of Trinidad and Tobago as reflected in the indices performance.

JAMAICA BEST PERFORMER

From a first glance, the JSE market index appeared to be the best performer of all the indices, ending the period on a positive note of 0.89 per cent, while the JSE All Jamaican composite index declined 9.86 per cent.

However, Trinidad investors in the Jamaican market would have suffered greater losses.

Accounting for currency adjustment in the Jamaican dollar, the JSE market index would have declined in USD equivalent terms by 9.57 per cent and the JSE composite by 19.21 per cent.

As was the trend with investors of preferring to remain in cash and more liquid instruments during the first quarter of the year, the second quarter proved to be no exception.

The lack of investors' interest in the equities market in the first half of the year resulted in low levels of liquidity on the TTSE on a comparative basis.

Total volume traded on the TTSE for the first half of 2009 fell 53 per cent, from 76 million units to 36 million units.

Total value also fell but at a reduced 18 per cent, from TT$1.12 billion to TT$924 million.

In terms of liquidity, Neal and Massy (NML) proved to be the most liquid stock, ending the period with a traded volume of 7.5 million shares or 20.6 per cent of total trades (see table 2 for the top five stocks in volume and value traded).

Trading activity on the first tier market resulted in four advances and 22 declines, compared to a 27:4 ratio for the first half of 2008 ( see tables 3 and 4).

National Commercial Bank of Jamaica (NCBJ) was the top advancer for the period with an 18.8 per cent increase followed by Prestige Holdings Limited which rose 17.9 per cent.

The Jamaican companies on the TTSE have struggled in 2009, accounting for three of the worst five performers.

Increased provisioning for loan loss predominated the banking sectors both in Jamaica and Trinidad.

NCBJ doubled its provision from a year ago while Republic Bank Limited increased loan loss provision as a percentage of total advances from 0.01 per cent to 0.9 per cent year on year.

With respect to the cross listed companies out of Jamaica, players in the currency market would have experienced some gains due to the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar, for instance, GraceKennedy Limited (GK) reported a significant increase in other income due to net gains from foreign currency trading. Another player in this market, Jamaica Money Market Brokers Limited reported an increase of 113.5 per cent in securities trading and foreign exchange gains. However, not all companies were positively affected by the slide of the Jamaican dollar. Sagicor Financial Corporation had a US$14.9 million loss on foreign exchange translations due to the group's exposure to Jamaica.

Trinidad-based conglomerates struggled in 2009 as economic growth faltered.

Ansa McAL first quarter earnings per share (EPS) was down 8.8 per cent and Neal & Massy half year EPS was down 6.0 per cent year on year.

Operationally, there were a few decent performances. FirstCaribbean International Bank reported EPS growth of 12.2 per cent for the first half of its financial year, while GK had a 38.4 per cent EPS growth for the first quarter of 2009.

On an operational basis, Guardian Holdings Limited reported a 32.5 per cent increase in profit before tax for Q1 2009.

The downward trend of 2008 has continued into 2009 as investors' demand for local equities continues to be weak.

Expectations are for this trend to continue into the second half of 2009 as corporate earnings falter in the face of weak economic fundamentals.

Contributed by Bourse Securities, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. Email: admin@boursefinancial.com