Government's chief economic planner, Dr Wesley Hughes, pointed to a bright spot amid the enveloping gloom when he reviewed Jamaica's first-quarter economic performance this week.

It was an observation by the head of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) that reinforced this newspaper's view that sustained growth in domestic agriculture is an important place towards which the country ought to be charting a course.

The context, however, is important. According to Dr Hughes, between January and March, gross domestic product, that is, the value of all goods and services produced in Jamaica, declined by 2.8 per cent when compared with the corresponding period in 2008. That seems to place the economy on track for the projected decline of up to three per cent in 2009.

The slippage was broad based. Output in the services sector, for instance, was down 1.6 per cent; finance and insurance were the only subsectors in this category not to be in retreat.

The goods-producing sector tumbled nearly six per cent, dragged down largely by 28.2 per cent slump in mining and quarrying resulting, primarily, from the collapse of the bauxite/alumina industry in the face of the global recession.

Grave implications

Indeed, three alumina refineries, accounting for more than two-thirds of production, have closed, with deep uncertainty that recovery in the global economy will lead to their resurrection. The fallout from these facilities have grave implications not only for the national economy, but the rural communities where they operated.

For example, the fiscal year that ended March 31, the Government projected that it would earn $8.64 billion in production levies from the industry. Its take was around half of that, and will fall to almost nothing in the current fiscal year. Additionally, these firms have in recent years invested over US$100 million annually in plant upgrading. They provided high-paying jobs that helped to keep rural towns and surrounding communities vibrant.

Or, viewed otherwise, the fallout represents a crisis for large swathes of the rural economy, which is demanding urgent attention. Which is where Dr Hughes' observation is relevant - the fact that in the heat of the midst of the first-quarter debacle, agriculture grew by 10 per cent, continuing its recovery from the storm ravages of 2007.

Focus on agriculture

Our essential point, therefore, is for the Government to focus on agriculture to prevent a deepening of the crisis in the rural economy and a worsening of poverty. Success will have national economic resonance.

Indeed, it is in Jamaica's interest to craft policies to bolster its food security. Spending US$750 million annually on food imports is unsustainable in the current context, particularly against the recent warning of the possibility, in a worst case scenario, of a precipitous tumble of the national reserves. A portion of this food supply, we feel, could switch to the domestic farm sector if it is given the proper incentives, including, but not limited to, protective tariffs. This support can be achieved, we insist, within the ambit of global trade rules.

Already, over 220,000 people are employed in agriculture, but some of these jobs are under pressure because of the collapse of the preferential market for sugar. It is not also about compensating for these jobs, but providing a cushion for those that are being lost because of the problems in mining.

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