Byron Buckley, Associate Editor

Supporters and sympathisers of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama worry that persons surveyed earlier might have been concealing from pollsters their true opposition to Obama, and could possibly vote against the African-American candidate on Tuesday.

The fear that electors might do an about-turn in the voting booth on Tuesday is based on the unexpected loss by Democrat Tom Bradley, an African American, of the 1982 California governor's race, despite being ahead in opinion polls going into the elections. This phenomenon, labelled the Bradley Effect, is based on the theory that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their real preference, they would open themselves to criticisms of racism.

"I don't think that is the case for a couple of reasons. The Bradley Effect happened over 20 years ago, and we have changed a lot during that period," Powell tells The Sunday Gleaner. He adds that the Bradley Effect has already been "discounted" and is apparent in recent poll findings.

Don't have to hide

Powell argues that persons in the American society who would not wish to vote for a black man do not have to hide that until they go into the voting booth, because they can manifest it in other ways. He notes that people can state their opposition publicly, or say, 'He is a Muslim', or find some other reason to say they won't vote for Obama, when their real reason might be because he is a black man.

"So, I don't think you are going to see that kind of effect, because that has already happened," reasons Powell. "I think we have already seen that there are some segments of our society where people will not vote for Mr Obama because he is black. So, I don't think it's going to be a big surprise when they go into the polling booths on Tuesday."

Powell, a member of several Republican administrations, recently endorsed Obama's bid for president. Obama, a first-term Senator from Illinois, and his running mate, Senator Joe Biden, are up against Republican Senator John McCain, a decorated war hero, and his vice-presidential nominee, Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin.

Adds Powell: "The more important point is that most Americans - as we see from the polls and as we see from how this campaign has unfolded - are very comfortable with having an African American competing for the presidency of the United States and he may well succeed next Tuesday, but we don't know yet."

The fear that electors might do an about-turn in the voting booth on Tuesday is based on the unexpected loss by Democrat Tom Bradley, an African American, of the 1982 California governor's race, despite being ahead in opinion polls going into the elections. This phenomenon, labelled the Bradley Effect, is based on the theory that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their real preference, they will open themselves to criticisms of racism.

byron.buckley@gleanerjm.com