Many of us may only exhale when we see the results on Tuesday night. Even then, spooked by 2004 (when Al Gore won Florida only to lose it), we may wait until well into the evening to pop the champagne corks. For we marvel at the possibility that a black man could become president of the United States, and can't help but think that something will, indeed must, go wrong.

Nonetheless, the ducks appear to be lining up for Barack Obama. The safe money - if one judges by the Intrade predictions market - is on an Obama victory. If the national polls have tightened in the last few weeks, the margin has remained steady. Meanwhile, state-by-state polls, which are what really count in the US electoral system, indicate that Obama almost certainly will win enough electoral college votes to claim victory.

Last-minute snags? We hear constantly about the Bradley effect. This is the name pollsters give the phenomenon whereby white voters, for fear of appearing racist, overrepresent their support for a black candidate. It was named after a black gubernatorial candidate in 1980s California who was predicted by pollsters to win a big victory, only to lose. The effect has since turned up in other American elections.

However, many analysts now dismiss the Bradley effect. Studies show that it has diminished over time, and some scholars point out that a reverse Bradley effect has been known to occur in some places, with support for black candidates turning out to be larger than poll predictions.

Furthermore, the effect has not been evenly distributed in the past. Where it has been significant tends to be in states in which Obama's current poll margins are more than sufficient to counteract its possible impact.

Concern

What about last-minute buyer's remorse? Over the last few days, there has been a steady supply of articles by a press that has hitherto largely adored Obama, but which is now shedding a critical eye on the man. In particular, some journalists worry that Obama has been given a pass by the press and got away with being more opaque than he should be about what he plans to do with the country.

However, this second-guessing may not matter now. Many Americans have already voted, minimising the effect of a last-minute turnaround. Anything is possible and, of course, the all-important voters have yet to 'speak'. Yet, barring some truly dramatic event, in about another 50 hours or so, Senator John McCain will go before the nation to concede defeat and congratulate his opponent.

The significance of this event is easily lost in the drama of the moment. Perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that Obama is attracting huge crowds of young, adoring fans. To them, he may represent more a movement than an individual. That may explain their apparent willingness to ignore the warnings from the left and the denunciations from the right, and to be part of an event that makes history.

It may be that this election will be better explained by poets than social scientists. William Wordsworth it was who, speaking of the French Revolution, famously observed "Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!"

Error in transcript

Democratic presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives at a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, on Friday, October 31. - AP

Some context always helps. In Wednesday's Gleaner, there was an error in the transcription of a remark I made at the Editors' Forum. I was reported as saying it was inconceivable America could go through its entire history without electing a black man. Actually, I said the opposite. The demographics are not particularly favourable to it.

Blacks make up a small and diminishing share of the population. Historically, they have been probably the most marginalised group. Nor, I would argue, has their political leadership succeeded in ending this marginalisation. Recent immigration trends have tended to further diminish the support for black politicians.

Finally, a significant part of the white working class remains uncomfortable with the idea of a black president. Indeed, Hillary Clinton was much criticised for trying to take advantage of these very factors in her contest with Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Bear in mind that Catholics, with more than twice the population and a less oppressive history than blacks, had to wait nearly two centuries before their countrymen would elect one of their own as a president. The point is that the US presidency has historically been open to a narrow cross section of society. Obama's victory will amount to blowing the doors open on the White House.

King's assassination in vain

Bear in mind, too, that this election is occurring just 40 years after another African American was killed for helping blacks to gain the right to vote.

I'd venture to guess that if I could go back in time to that day in Memphis, and suggest to the assassin that it was all in vain, that in a mere two-score years America would have a black president, I'd have been laughed out of town - not just by him, but by any serious person to whom I made the statement.

So, it's not surprising that this election has stirred up more excitement than any in a generation. It speaks to the resilience and adaptability of the American political system. I don't want to convey a false impression. I'm the first to complain about the many flaws in America and don't think we have any lessons to learn from them about how to run an election.

Nonetheless, at times like these, I can't help but admire a country whose ability to constantly reinvent itself is the envy of many others. If I said it was conceivable that America could go through its history without a black president, I also always knew it was conceivable it might one day put a black man in the Oval Office: although it wasn't written in stone, nor was it out of the question.

I can think of several countries of which that cannot be said of minority groups. This capacity for reinvention sometimes mystifies foreign observers. However, many would say it lies at the heart of American success - that ability to make history, rather than just respond to it.

I don't fool myself that if Barack Obama wins on Tuesday night, racism will disappear from the United States on Wednesday morning. But the result will, in my eyes, restore at least a little bit of America's moral authority to lecture the rest of us about our own faults.

John Rapley is president of Caribbean Research Institute (CaPRI) an independent research think tank affiliated to the University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.