A large crowd watches as the float parade passes through May Pen on Independence Day 1962.- file

Planning for the future has recently jumped to the forefront of public attention with announcements of new techniques to find out what the more distant future holds and how it can be influenced to our benefit. This is a useful exercise; it is like the work being done by the most valuable piece of equipment ever devised, the Hubble telescope, which is orbiting in space in search of valuable unknown information on the very distant past and future of planet Earth.

But I much prefer to look around the corner to see how events can be shaped to reflect what we desire now.

In this regard, the 50th anniversary of Independence is just around the corner, in 2012, four years from now. That is an auspicious date because 50th anniversaries are always occasions to be marked for commemoration. As a Jamaican occasion, it is expected to be of greater importance than any other grand occasion of the recent past, like Cricket World Cup, or any such other celebration to come in this period. In fact, it should be the biggest event of acknowledgement by the Jamaican people of their coming of age since Independence in 1962.

Independence, for those who did not personally share in the occasion, was a grand gala with revelries in all types of cultural events and sports added to the ceremonials of the newly acquired statehood. It was an unforgettable occasion of joy mixed with a profound recognition of the magnitude of the historic step of independence. The 50th anniversary will be expected to be no less.

The question that will surface immediately is: What should be the theme of this historic occasion in 2012? The answer is inescapable. The focus is going to be on the achievements of the past 50 years.

This raises the point as to what has been achieved, in terms of the big picture. That picture will tell a story of promising performance or deep disappointment.

Right now, we are on track to paint a gloomy portrayal of the past half-century. In all the crucial areas of governance, the performance has been well below expectations, if not a downright failure.

noble objective

Leading the way is the education system, which was set the noble objective of educating successive generations of Jamaica's children irrespective of colour, race, class or wealth, to produce an educated or, at least, skilled society. This would have been a crowning achievement considering that over the preceding centuries of Jamaican life effective education was offered only to the privileged few.

This was changed in the 1960s and early 1970s when the doors were opened to all, so much so that a great many students found themselves in new secondary school they were still academically at primary school level.

Books were provided, school lunches were available to many, and, for a time, uniforms too were allotted to students. Teachers were upgraded and requirements for trained graduates increased. New schools were constructed and old ones refurbished. In short, almost the full programme of needs for a sound education system was fulfilled to a large extent, though not completely so.

From this comparatively lavish treatment, it would be reasonable to expect sufficient success to ensure that most graduates would have been be trained academically or taught some skill.

In the mid-1960s when Edwin Allen reserved 70 per cent of all secondary school places for primary school students, he was making certain that those with the lowest level of education, which was what was available to the pupils of government primary schools, would all get a chance to be trained in secondary schools. That 70 per cent figure was also setting a benchmark ratio which denoted that the entrants to secondary schools were 70 per cent from poor schools in poor communities, with poor preparation, and 30 per cent beneficiaries from schools which prepared them better for secondary education.

failure

Hopefully, after 45 years, the results today should now show that failure among the 70 per cent who did not receive a sound level of preparation would now be reduced to, say 50 per cent or less, thereby increasing the trained component to 50 per cent or more. Nothing of the sort has happened. The 70 per cent consistently lacking in any skill after 45 years of training, even with the help or more and more improved resources, is now 75 per cent or more, indicating the worsening of a situation which 45 years ago was already exceptionally bad.

The education system, having failed to produce results on a broad basis, though proudly able to boast of many graduates of merit on a relatively limited scale, is not a sector of performance which could be upheld for acclaim.

The economy 45 years ago, was beginning an upward march t of internationally recognised performance which gave Jamaica acknowledgement as the fastest growing developing country in the world, based on an average growth of five per cent over the five years prior to 1973. Today, without doubt, Jamaica can be acclaimed as the slowest growing developing country in the world with no more than one per cent growth per annum over the past 16 years.

Again, there were special benefits provided. A wide range of incentives were offered with ample tax relief to attract investment and growth. Notwithstanding the focus of policy, as well as much legislation and wooing to attract investment, the expected benefits have not materialised in the manufacturing sector. The agricultural sector, like a flower which had bloomed spectacularly for generations, greeted Independence with a continuous trail of under-performance over the succeeding decades. The sector was particularly fortunate to have been the beneficiary of greater bail-outs and subsidies than any other, more tariff preferences than any other, more protection from competition than any other, and yet, the result has been a sustained record of faded fortunes.

infamy

Perhaps the sorry state of both education and the economy has been good reason for the failure of the third sector of critical importance for a successful state, the criminal justice system. Here, the difference over the past 45 years has been immeasurably poor. No other area has a record of failure as the criminal justice system over the past 45 years, built as it has been on the achievement of infamy which propelled Jamaica to the top of world standings in murders committed and the performance of rape. Top this off with an exceptional record of civil and state corruption, little of which existed in the early days. The situation has now reached a stage of "Wha' fe do?"

This scenario is not a pretty picture on which to base a case for celebration. But it can be if the next four years are pointedly aimed at achievements which will be indicative that the corner has been turned and that the future genuinely looks more glorious in prospects than the failings of the past.

The people of Jamaica no longer expect miracles and are wary of those who promise them. They will be grateful for signals of modest packages of limited performance that are moving the country in the right direction in crucial areas:

"Decrease of the 75 per cent failure rate in secondary schools to 50 per cent;

"A broader reach of employment to benefit the poorest of the poor;

"A restoration of justice to replace the inequities of injustice and a credible reduction of crime.

These are fundamental expectations for which everyone will be grateful enough to feel that while the past 50 years since Independence was a trail of trial and error, it could now be expected that "better will come" and "deliverance" is near.

Edward Seaga is a former Prime Minister. He is now a Distinguished Fellow at the UWI. Email: odf@uwimona.edu.jm