Don Robotham, Contributor 
Gas station attendant Dan Bajada helps pump gas for a customer at Menlo-Atherton Shell gas station in Menlo Park, Calif., recently. With world oil prices nearly US$100 per barrel, Jamaica is sure to face even greater challenges. - contributed
While a prominent Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) supporter was busy 'tracing' off former People's National Party (PNP) tourism officials, serious problems were developing in our economy. If I were Wykeham McNeill or Dennis Morrison, given the source of the tracing, I would take it as a great compliment. Remember that personal abuse and bluster are always diversionary tactics - it is a sign that you have hit the bullseye!
The new government can be assured of one thing: a perception is developing out there that they are more interested in sharing out the spoils of office than they are in the increasing hardships of the Jamaican people. Up to a point, the general public does not care whether John Lynch is chair of the Jamaican Tourist Board. What people care about is that the price of flour has risen 30 per cent.
They care about the fact that gas prices have gone up. They care about the increase in the price of chicken. They think, and they are absolutely right, that more and higher price increases are coming. A perception is growing that who grabs which board seat is more important to the new government than the price of flour and gas.
The JLP seems to forget that it only obtained a plurality of about 3,000 in the popular vote. It won't take much to topple such a slim plurality. The question which is increasingly facing the new government is not whether the PNP will topple it. The question is whether the JLP will topple itself.
Right now there is talk about the new government laying off bus conductors and conductresses as part of a restructuring programme at the Jamaica Urban Transit Company. I am sure there are good economic justifications for such a step. Nevertheless, such a move would be social and political suicide. It would send a signal far beyond the small circle of employees involved.
If, as Michael Burke argued in another place, a government whose campaign mantra was 'jobs, jobs, jobs' was to make the laying off of public sector employees its first step in the midst of dishing out board appointments, then only one conclusion is possible: the Golding government has a death wish. It is seeking to have an even briefer term in office than the 18 months enjoyed by our former Prime Minister.
WORLD ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
The JLP can rightly protest that the deterioration in the economic situation is not their doing. Worldwide economic conditions are the cause, is their cry. Except for the slide in the dollar for which the JLP is partly to blame, they are correct. Late last week world oil prices skyrocketed to over US$96 per barrel.
Wheat prices in Chicago have continued to rise above six per cent and the same applies to a wide range of our basic imported foodstuffs and grains, such as corn. Countries as far apart as Egypt, Bangladesh, Jordan, China and Russia have taken urgent steps either to introduce price controls or to reduce tariffs to try to contain these global price increases. On top of all of this we are feeling the effect of a double devaluation. The US dollar reached US$1.43 to the euro last Monday and later in the week fell to US$0.97 cents to the Canadian dollar. As if this was not bad enough, the Jamaican dollar continued its slide beyond 71 to one.
negative trends
On the revenue side, the downturn in the U.S. housing market is likely to have a serious impact on tourism arrivals in the coming season and beyond. Ed Bartlett and his team are working hard to correct this, but they are up against powerful negative trends over which they have no control. What this suggests is that, on top of all our other problems mentioned above, our current account deficit is likely to deteriorate further. All this translates into higher inflation, higher interest rates, a higher debt burden, little economic growth and few jobs. Not a pretty picture.
Are any of these developments the fault of Mr. Shaw or Mr. Golding? The answer is 'no'. Do they have to shoulder the economic and political blame for them? The answer is 'yes.' The reason is this: Long before the election the JLP was warned loud and clear that the economic situation was delicately balanced and subject to serious global negatives. They were repeatedly warned to stop talking demagogic nonsense about 'alternative economic models.' They were told to end the absurd promises of 'jobs, jobs, jobs' and free this and free that. But they would not hear.
They shouted from the rooftops that the deficits on current account and in the budget were not a result of real deficits in the real economy of Jamaica. The problem was not that the little sugar, bauxite and tourism could not pay our bills. The problem was Omar. Get rid of Omar, they proclaimed, and we would apply ou economic model. The PNP couldn't do it but we can - that was the JLP message.
Well, they got rid of Omar. So what is stopping them from applying thi economic model now? Implement your model, Mr. Shaw. Chastise the exchange rate with your political scorpions and get interest rates to fall with a wave of your magic wand! What rubbish! Talk about 'cock mout kill cock.'
The JLP in government is getting a painful education in Jamaican realities. The basic truth of Jamaican economic reality is this: our economy is a backward one
which cannot compete in the global marketplace. Take the question of agricultural modernisation which Mr. Golding raised recently.
low educational level
He should go back and analyse the reasons for the Spring Plains failure. The problem was not inherent to the project which, by and large, was a good one. The problem was the low educational level of the Jamaican agricultural labour force. The technology was to be transferred, but to whom? Rural illiteracy and poverty is substantially higher than urban illiteracy and poverty it is the latter which, because of the crime, grabs all the headlines. Solving that one will take more than 10 years, that's for sure.
Adjusting to these painful realities was the main reason for the harsh structural adjustment of the last 18 years. It had absolutely nothing to do with 'the wickedness' of Omar Davies or P.J. Patterson. That was just the usual vulgar Jamaican tracing which never misses an opportunity to personalise an issue. As I have written time and again, this structural adjustment has had dire social consequences in our high murder and police brutality rates, in our moral collapse and in our general indiscipline. But it was at the same time unavoidable. Globalisation imposed its harsh realities on us, whether we liked it or not.
Jamaica is a small, open, underdeveloped economy with a poorly educated and trained labour force. We are price takers, not price makers. Jamaica is not as small as Barbados, where a tourist industry of less than one million can make the economy buoyant. The entire population of Barbados (250,000) could hold in Portmore with a little overflow. Jamaica historically has a powerful movement of black consciousness which strongly objects to light-skinned privilege.
This is why we originated Rastafarianism and reggae. Jamaica also has recently developed a politically and socially vibrant black bourgeoisie which is still economically weak but which no other country in the Caribbean has. Jamaica is not, and will never be, Barbados or Singapore. We are who we are and so we shall remain.
Whether the PNP or JLP is in power, or Audley Shaw or Omar Davies is the Finance Minister, this is our reality. Instead of trying to grasp this reality deeply the tendency in the JLP has been to hark back to some mythical glory days of the 1960s and 1980s. If those years were so glorious, why were they unceremoniously kicked out of power?
Indulging in boastful self-congratulatory rants of a personal nature while flour, gas, corn and chicken prices shoot up may soothe certain overcharged JLP egos. It sure won't help the standing of Mr. Golding. If I remember rightly, Mr. Golding himself was once on the receiving end of just such a tracing. He had to rebuff it.
