John Rapley

I must have missed something. It wasn't that long ago the Israelis and Americans said that Fatah was a terrorist organisation. Now I'm hearing they're moderate Arabs. Since a week is a long time in politics, I guess a few years are an eternity.

And two weeks ago now seems a long time ago. It was then that Hamas fighters stormed Palestinian government buildings in the Gaza Strip and effectively dislodged Fatah from power in that thin, impoverished strip of land. In response, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas dismissed the Hamas-led government and appointed a new one, loyal to him alone.

The White House joined Israel in announcing its backing of Mr. Abbas's initiative to isolate the Islamist Hamas. The two allies' approach to this crisis is that Palestine has effectively been divided into two: a Fatah-led West Bank and a Hamas-led Gaza. By boosting aid to Fatah while cutting off Hamas, they are hoping to make the west Bank a showcase for 'moderation,' all while Gaza slides further into desperation.

Abbas's administration

It is a curious, possibly dangerous, reading of the situation. First of all, it's not clear that Hamas plans to actually govern Gaza. The Islamist movement's strike on Fatah may not have been a coup so much as a successful strike against Fatah security services. Hamas may now want to put Gaza back under Mr. Abbas's administration.

However, Hamas will then demand that it be brought back into government. Mr. Abbas seems likely to refuse - certainly, that's what the Israelis and Americans want him to do. In that case, a standoff between the Hamas-led Gaza Strip and the Fatah government in the West Bank would loom as a possibility.

Even then, it seems unlikely Mr. Abbas could hold out for long. First off, it would probably be political suicide for him to collude in a strategy of refusing his own people government support and services. Second, it would likely be illegal. Like it or not, Hamas won legislative elections and, under the Palestinian constitution, have a right to power. The Americans might not mind dismantling a democratically-elected government, but it is highly improbable that Mr. Abbas will want to turn himself into, in effect, a tyrant.

Greater danger

Third, Mr. Abbas must know that there is an even greater danger in trying to cut off Hamas and turn the West Bank into the purported showcase for moderation. It could backfire. Fatah has shown itself to be inept andcorrupt in administration. Hamas, for all its evils, seems to have a somewhat better record when it comes to day-to-day administration. There is thus a risk that a Hamas-led Gaza Strip could instead end up the showcase. All things considered, this strategy seems unworkable. Add the fact that the unpopular Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert faces an uncertain future, while U.S. President Bush's term is winding down, and its very durability looks doubtful. Therefore, were Mr. Abbas to place all his eggs in this one basket, he would be engaging in a huge political gamble that might yield pecuniary gains in the very short term, but great losses in the not-too-distant future.

It took the Americans and Israelis a long time to form the opinion that Fatah was not a terrorist organisation. They would probably both do themselves a favour if they accelerated the process whereby they reached that same opinion about Hamas. Because as detestable as Hamas can be at times, if it was ever the face of Palestinian Islamist radicalism, it no longer is. In these dire conditions, new groups are sprouting up which may one day make Hamas the new face of moderation.