Edmond Campbell, News Coordinator

Leaders of state, including Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (second right), participate in the National Labour Day thanksgiving service, held at the Andrew's Memorial Seventh-day Adventist Church in St. Andrew, yesterday. Labour Day will be observed on Wednesday under the theme: 'Honouring our Ancestors, Strengthening Communities'. Accompanying the Prime Minister (from left) are Maxine Henry-Wilson, Minister of Education and Youth; Dr. Wykeham McNeill, State Minister, Tourism, Entertainment and Culture; and Custos of Kingston, Canon Weeville Gordon. - Ian Allen/Staff Photographer

After capturing dramatic and at times steady declines in voter support over a 10-month period for the ruling People's National Party (PNP), the latest Gleaner-commissioned surveys have now shown a resurgence in the party's stocks.

According to the survey conducted islandwide by pollster Bill Johnson, the PNP has pushed seven percentage points ahead of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), which has suffered a decline in its fortunes, as the race to form the country's next government heats up.

Johnson and his team of researchers surveyed 1,008 Jamaicans between May 5 and 6, and found that if an election for Parliament had been held earlier this month, 34 per cent of the persons polled would have voted for the PNP, while 27 per cent would have given the JLP the nod. The margin of error for the sample is plus or minus three per cent.

Budget presentation

In an interview with Johnson, the pollster said that two factors accounted for the PNP's bounceback. He cited the Prime Minister's recent Budget presentation in which she "connected with her base", when she announced that all public hospitals, excluding the University Hospital of the West Indies, would, effective later this month, provide free health care for children under 18 years.

He said the ruling administration may also have benefited from a "feeling of pride that many Jamaicans had when the country co-hosted the Cricket World Cup".

However, Johnson said it was difficult to determine at this time whether the PNP's surge would be permanent or short-lived.

Of significance in the poll is the breakdown, which shows the PNP statistically dormant between October last year and January this year, with just a one percentage-point slip from 32 per cent to 31 per cent respectively. This flat support compares with a plunge from 52 per cent in March 2006 when Portia Simpson Miller took the reigns of government, to 44 per cent in May and a further drop to 38 per cent in July.

Johnson expressed the view that the unrealistic expectations that many people had of Simpson Miller had petered out in October and, until recently, the Prime Minister was being judged on the basis of her performance.

At the same time, Bill Johnson's findings show that the JLP did not gain additional support from March to July 2006, but saw a six percentage-point jump to 32 per cent in October, remained constant up to January 2007, and has now dipped in the latest survey to 27 per cent, shedding five percentage points.

The net effect of the JLP's first decline in support in more than a year, means that the party has gained just one percentage point after nearly 10 months of campaigning, moving from 26 per cent in March 2006 to 27 per cent in May 2007. The party hit the campaign trail on July 26 last year.

But why has the JLP seen a fall off in support according to the May survey? "In my opinion, the JLP's greatest contribution to the political season was the Trafigura situation back in September 2006," Johnson told The Sunday Gleaner.

"They just haven't been on the screen with anything meaningful as far as the average person is concerned since then," he said.

Despite Opposition Leader, Bruce Golding, receiving high marks from some analysts for his Budget contribution, Johnson reasoned that Golding's presentation appeared to have not resonated with the average Jamaican.

Eligible voters were asked: "Regardless of how you may feel about your local candidates for Parliament, if the election for Parliament was being held today, do you think you would probably vote for the PNP candidate, or would you definitely vote for the PNP candidate, or would you probably vote for the JLP candidate, or would you definitely vote for the JLP candidate, or are you probably not going to vote as things stand now?"

Johnson's latest national poll also showed a four percentage-point increase for the period January-May this year, among Jamaicans who have distanced themselves from the political process. In fact, 24 per cent of the sample interviewed said they would not vote.

A significant percentage of registered voters have remained on the political fence, with 13 per cent of respondents yet to make a decision as to which party they would support, while two per cent of those interviewed refused to offer a comment.

Based on the findings of the May survey, Johnson and his team asked respondents what are the main reasons why you feel this way?

In terms of a favourable or unfavourable opinion of both the PNP and the JLP, 43 per cent of respondents gave the ruling party a favourable rating while the JLP received 34 per cent.

When respondents were asked whether they had an unfavourable opinion of both parties the PNP registered 38 per cent while the JLP recorded 45 per cent.

Nineteen per cent of persons interviewed were not sure of their opinion of the PNP, while 21 per cent of respondents say they were unsure about how they viewed the JLP.

Meanwhile, 41 per cent of the sample interviewed said the Portia Simpson Miller administration would do a better job at governing Jamaica at this time, while 31 per cent of the sample felt that way about the JLP. Another 27 per cent of respondents were undecided as to which party would do a better job.

edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com