Garwin Davis, Sunday Gleaner Writer

Sixth-form student Paige Smith (left), 'Miss St. Andrew High School', gets a kiss from Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (right), after she presented the Prime Minister with an orchid at a Teachers' Day ceremony held recently, at the Terra Nova Hotel, in Kingston. Simpson Miller's trademark kissing is part of her charismatic arsenal. - Winston Sill/Freelance Photographer

Talk about political charisma in 20th century Jamaica and the names you will hear being repeated are Michael Manley and Sir Alexander Bustamante.

These leaders, political scholars have said, could easily 'sell ice to an Eskimo' or using the words of sociologist Max Weber, 'stir things up'. They "have very strong core values that drive their behaviour and are able to advocate an appealing vision that moves the organisation or group beyond the status quo," according to Weber.

Now, asthe country prepares for its tenth general election since 1962 and with names such as former prime ministers P.J. Patterson and Edward Seaga - hardly the types to excite anybody - no longer a part of the political milieu, charisma has regained significance. In fact, supporters of the People's National Party (PNP) are convinced that, as was the case with Manley in 1972, they have in Portia Simpson Miller the leader that not only 'drips charisma' but is so well loved nationally that a fifth consecutive term in office is but a forgone conclusion.

Just listen to party general secretary Donald Buchanan: "When the Prime Minister gets rolling, they are going to understand the true meaning of charisma. Not only will she be in South West St. Elizabeth or, for that matter, South East St. Catherine, she will be in almost every constituency. They are going to feel the connection that exists between our party leader and the people when that time comes."

He continues: "All the polls to date have indicated that Jamaicans want Mrs. Simpson Miller to continue as Prime Minister. All the polls have indicated that she has a wide lead over Bruce Golding, every single poll."

What exactly is charisma?

Is it something that can be measured, or is it as one former United States Senator said about pornography, "I just know it when I see it"?

Jerry Wofford, professor emeritus of management at the University of Texas, Arlington, explains: "Charismatic leaders speak dynamically, forcefully, persuasively, and that causes other people to buy into the vision, to want to achieve it. They are generally risk takers, unconventional, self-confident, and have a sufficient amount of competence that people feel comfortable in their leadership. The relationship goes both ways. It's important that the follower sees the leader as charismatic."

He continues: "Charismatic leadership usually emerges in a crisis situation, because in a crisis people are more likely to look toward a person who appears capable of bringing them through."

Howard Friedman, a professor of psychology at the University of California-Riverside who focuses on non-verbal communication, defines personal charisma as "a certain appeal, allure, or presence. When charismatic people enter a room, they draw attention and may enliven the whole gathering." Charismatic people, he adds, have "a basic self-confidence and project this to others" and are "emotionally expressive. That is, others have a sense of what they are feeling, mostly via non-verbal communication."

Most people I know, even some of her harshest critics, will readily admit that - real or imagined - Simpson Miller is seen as being very charismatic. Say whatever you want, and there is a lot to say, but no other politician in the country can electrify a room or command attention the way she can.

I remember meeting her back in 1997 when I just started out with The Gleaner as a correspondent for the parish of St. Ann. I had wiggled my way inside a PNP National Executive Council meeting where within minutes, I was unceremoniously removed by a number of party officials, including party chairman Bobby Pickersgill. To say I was embarrassed would be putting it mildly.

Following the meeting, Simpson Miller saw me standing alone at a distance, still smarting from the embarrassment I had suffered earlier. To my surprise, she came over and gave me a hug. "You will be all right," she said. "There's nothing to be ashamed of - just stay strong." Call it curry favouring with a media person or anything you want, but it has stayed with me since then.

The Portia factor

I recount this to say that the Portia factor in this election is alive and well and could be the difference between winning and losing for the PNP. I am not a pollster, but based on the evidence I have seen in the numerous constituencies I have visited, she may well be, in the words of former Prime Minister Patterson, "the only hope" for a PNP victory.

Just take, for example, a place like Central Manchester, a traditional PNP stronghold. While acknowledging (69per cent) that the country is heading in the wrong direction, an equally high number of voters said they approve of the job Portia Simpson Miller is doing as Prime Minister, according to recent Gleaner-commissioned polls conducted by pollster Bill Johnson.

Now, how do we explain this blatant contradiction? How on one hand can over two thirds of the number of respondents say the country is going in the wrong direction and then the same people be in favour of the job the Prime Minister is doing for the country?

"It's almost like an out-of-body experience when it comes to Portia Simpson Miller," Pollster Bill Johnson says. "Call it charisma or whatever you want to call it. The fact is that the voters tend to disassociate Simpson Miller from the running of the government."

Okay then, so let's take another constituency the PNP has held for nearly two decades - St. Elizabeth South West - and see how well charisma and the Portia factor hold up.

The numbers, while not alarmingly bad, are also not very encouraging. Those polled, as is probably the case in every constituency in the country, including the JLP's sacred ground in West Kingston, had a more favourable opinion of Simpson Miller than those who viewed her unfavourably.

What stands out, though, is that while 48 per cent of respondents in St. Elizabeth SW say they have a favourable opinion of her, an unusually strong 36 per cent say they have seen nothing for them to be excited about. These are not the kinds of numbers one would expect to see for the party leader in a seat controlled by the PNP for so long, and certainly not when that person is Simpson Miller.

Bruce not the charismatic type

For Opposition Leader Bruce Golding - hardly the charismatic type - the 41 per cent who view him favourably as opposed to the 37 per cent who view him unfavourably, is probably better than what one would expect coming from a strong PNP area such as St. Elizabeth SW.

Golding, if the truth should be told, even in some constituencies fiercely loyal to the JLP, does not always fare well when it comes to voters expressing their personal opinion of him.

It is, therefore, surprising that Golding and the JLP, notwithstanding the plus or minus five percentage points, bettered Simpson Miller and the PNP in every other polling department in the PNP's own St. Elizabeth SW backyard.

On the question of who do you think would do a better job as Prime Minister, Golding polled 41 per cent to Simpson Miller's 37 per cent. On the question of which party do you think would do the best job of governing Jamaica at this time, 43 per cent said the JLP, compared to the 34 per cent that said the PNP.

Overly optimistic?

On the question of whether they have a favourable opinion of the PNP, 47 per cent of the electorate in St. Elizabeth SW said no while 39 per cent said yes. When the same question was asked about the JLP, 43 per cent said yes and 40 per cent said no.

And it doesn't get much better for Simpson Miller and the PNP. Asked how they would rate the performance of the Government at this time, 46 per cent said they were not impressed while 33 per cent gave the administration the thumbs up. And on the question of the job Simpson Miller was doing as Prime Minister, 43 per cent said they approved but an almost identical number - 40 per cent - said they disapproved.

And the Portia factor? A combined 64 per cent say they support the PNP based on family tradition and their personal beliefs. Only nine per cent say Portia Simpson Miller being the leader and Prime Minister have influenced their thinking.

So, I will again raise the question. Are charisma and stratospheric levels of approval ratings for the party leader enough to take the PNP home on election night? Isn't it somewhat nave or as somebody said to me the other day, overly optimistic, to believe that Simpson Miller, with all the charisma in the world, can just waltz into a constituency - regardless of how weak the PNP candidate is - and simply turn things around?

"If anybody can do it, Portia can," commented Cornelius Brown, a fisherman from Calabash Bay in Treasure Beach. "All the noise you are hearing about Chris Tufton (JLP candidate for St. Elizabeth SW), the day Portia comes through this constituency is the day everything changes for the better. All Stanley Redwood (PNP candidate) has to do is remain calm; Portia will take him home."

Ruth Thomas, a fish vendor in Treasure Beach, added: "The Labourites them know that when Sister P (the name the Prime Minister is affectionately called by her supporters) hits the road, there is no turning back. Always remember that this is PNP country."

I suspect we are a lot closer than a lot of people think to seeing whether charisma - as the PNP supporters believe - will carry the day. We must be reminded, however, that while Manley used his personal appeal to win back-to-back elections in 1972 and 1976, it failed him miserably in 1980 when the electorate became convinced that it was time for a change.

What will it be in 2007? Will the charisma of Portia Simpson Miller take the PNP home or will the JLP and its leader's message of 'Time for a change', carry the day? The nation waits with breathless anticipation.