Garwin Davis, Gleaner Writer

Lean on me? Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Opposition Leader Bruce Golding are caught in tight quarters as they await the start of the ceremonial opening of Parliament at Gordon House. - File

Despite a year largely defined by her handling of the Trafigura affair, and the seemingly endless bickering among party colleagues, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller still enjoys the approval of a majority of Jamaicans, according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned poll. In addition, her favourability ratings continue to outstrip those of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding.

Pollster Bill Johnson, based on interviews with 1,008 residents in communities across the island on May 5 and 6, found that Simpson Miller's approval rating has gone up by six percentage points since the last poll was done back in January. When asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job Simpson Miller was doing as Prime Minister, 54 per cent of respondents said yes as opposed to the 28 per cent who said no. The poll sample has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

In July of last year when the same question was asked, 55 per cent of persons interviewed said yes compared to the 16 per cent who said no. In October, her favourability rating dipped slightly with 49 per cent approving of her performance and 31 per cent saying they disapproved.

Stratospheric levels

As it relates to likeability, the Prime Minister's numbers remain at stratospheric levels while the Opposition Leader's continue to dip; 58 per cent of respondents say they have a favourable opinion of her as opposed to the 26 per cent who said they do not. Contrast this with the 32 per cent who give Golding a favourable rating and the eye-popping 44 per cent who said they do not.

"He has never beaten her in any head-to-head comparison in any of the national polls we have done and this is the trend that we continue to see," Johnson told The Gleaner. "To put it bluntly, she is popular and he is not."

In fact, Golding, according to the poll, is not seen as being able to do a better job than Simpson Miller as Prime Minister. Golding, who in earlier polls, had appeared to be rapidly closing the gap on Simpson Miller, now seems to be waning somewhat, polling 28 per cent to Simpson Miller's 47 per cent on the question of who would do a better job as Prime Minister. In March last year, fresh from her victory in the People's National Party (PNP) presidential race, Simpson Miller outpolled Golding 63 per cent to 20 per cent on the same question. In May it was a little more respectable, with the Prime Minister still comfortably ahead by 55 per cent to 20 per cent.

Fast forward, however, to October 2006, and the public for the first time saw a sign of vulnerability in the once seemingly impenetrable armour of Simpson Miller. It took Golding - thanks in large part to his damaging disclosure that Trafigura Beheer, a Dutch-based oil trading firm that did business with the government, had contributed $35 million to the PNP - only five months to close the gap to a momentum boosting 10 points. This was a dramatic turnaround from the 43 and 35 points lead Simpson Miller enjoyed in March and May respectively.

But Golding's good fortune did not last; in January this year the Opposition Leader would suffer a setback, polling 30 per cent to the Prime Minister's 42 per cent.

Simpson Miller's 19-point lead over Golding in relation to who would be a better Prime Minister in this latest poll seems to be suggesting, however, that while she has received a bounce somewhere along the way, the Opposition Leader, neither in his Budget presentation (which incidentally received some very high marks from the pundits) nor in anything else, has not created much of an impression on the electorate.

"While Simpson Miller got her bounce from her Budget speech and also the Cricket World Cup, Golding's Budget presentation seems to have resonated only with the intellectuals," pollster Johnson commented. "The Prime Minister's health care benefits struck a chord with many people and came over very well. It is also worth noting that a lot of the respondents felt that the World Cup was a good thing for the country."