Edmond Campbell, News Coordinator

St. Catherine South East, a constituency, which has a pattern of supporting the winning party in general elections between 1976 to 2002, is now showing a statistical dead heat between representatives of the two major political parties, according to a poll conducted for The Gleaner by pollster Bill Johnson and his team.

The constituency, which consists mainly of the older communities in Portmore, has voted for the People's National Party (PNP) to form the government five times since 1976, and twice for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), in 1980 and 1983, during the so-called snap election which the PNP boycotted.

Two other constituencies have communities that are situated in Portmore: St. Catherine Southern, represented by the PNP's Fitz Jackson, and St. Catherine South Central, represented by the PNP's Sharon Hay Webster - both of whom are second-term Members of Parliament.

St Catherine SE survey

In surveying 480 residents in St. Catherine South East, which comprises low- and middle-income communities on March 11, Johnson found that 29 per cent would vote for the JLP if an election were called now, while 28 per cent of respondents are backing the ruling PNP. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus five per cent.

The two candidates who are getting ready to do battle at the polls when Prime Minister Simpson Miller blows the trumpet, are Deputy Mayor of the Portmore Municipality, Colin Fagan, and Opposition Senator, Arthur Williams. Fagan, a businessman, is councillor for the Edgewater division, while Williams is an attorney-at-law.

Residents' choice

When Johnson asked residents who they most wanted to win if an election were called at this time, 28 per cent gave the JLP's Williams the nod, while Fagan trailed with a 24 per cent support. The undecided represents a massive 45 per cent, while three per cent refused to comment.

Twenty-two per cent of respondents have a favourable opinion of the PNP's Fagan, two percentage points less than the 24 per cent that has an unfavourable opinion of him. However, 54 per cent of constituents surveyed did not have a definitive view of him. Similarly, 55 per cent of those polled were not sure how to rate Williams's candidacy. Those who had a favourable opinion of the JLP's caretaker stood at 25 per cent, five percentage points more than eligible electors who have an unfavourable opinion of him.

Apathy among eligible voters in the constituency is high with 27 per cent of the people interviewed saying they would not vote, while those undecided stood at 12 per cent.