Dawn Ritch, Columnist

The signs in the Jamaican economy are somewhat confusing. Though, how one can be looking for signs in an economy that pays more than half its annual income to service public debt is itself a contradiction in terms.

The first three quarters of 2006 were the best experienced by Jamaica in years. The fourth quarter was an absolute disaster.

In the week before Christmas, you could get into any shop on Constant Spring Road without having to jostle a soul at 9:15 at night. No matter how bad the year was, Christmas week is always busy. But last year, there was only a little spending bulge on Christmas Eve.

Hurt business

This I find confusing. Was it the tremendous amount of hype leading up to ICC Cricket World Cup? Businesses in downtown Kingston complained bitterly that all the construction on roads and Sabina Park hurt their business. Since then there has been little spin-off from the matches in terms of economic activity. The opening matches in Jamaica were controlled in such a way that it was killed. The writing was on the wall. Antigua gave a public holiday, but the people still didn't go to cricket. And as I said recently, the CARICOM visa choked our arrivals from overseas.

Last week, the Eastern Caribbean, therefore, announced that local fans could now take food, small igloos and musical instruments into the cricket stadium. That was forbidden in Jamaica. Since this is supposed to be an international competition with the same rules everywhere, the Jamaican peanut vendor I saw on television who paid $25,000 for permission to vend at Sabina Park should have his money refunded.

After a decent sprint last year, the Jamaican economy has been becalmed for the last six months. The irony is that consumer confidence and business confidence have never been higher in years, according to the Conference Board. Somewhat gingerly, the overseas academic responsible admitted on camera that he had no idea why confidence rebounded so sharplyin the first quarter of this year.

He said the results had to be looked at in the context that 2007 is a general election year. Hazarding a guess therefore, he suggested that Jamaica was either happy with the current administration, or looking forward to a change of regime.

This was not very helpful, but there it goes. Since Prime Minister Mrs. Simpson Miller is both the current administration and a change of regime, it seems that both 'yes' and 'no' in these cases is 'yes', but who knows.

Cash flow

I find it strange that these confidence numbers should be so strong at a time when the real economy is becalmed. Hope has never been so high, yet people are still in need of work, and with a few exceptions, businesses are still in need of cash flow! Surely, not everyone can be earning dollars from Olint?

The Jamaican stock market is behaving as though it's in a malaise, going up, down, up. This too is odd, but I think it will only behave badly if there is nervousness in the market that Madame Prime Minister might overspend the budget in the run-up to the election.

In the meantime, two-bedroom houses in Portmore are priced at $6 million and more, because two people can each get a three-million-dollar loan from the National Housing Trust (NHT), and combine them. This could, therefore, be described as a major boost to confidence, but the NHT has repossessed and auctioned houses before. No doubt they will do so again.

Nobody can expect that in the year of a general election, a government would close down either Air Jamaica or the Sugar Company no matter how much money they lose. Indeed, it has just been announced that the Government has guaranteed another J$8 billion for Air Jamaica. Between the guaranteed and monstrous public debt of the Sugar Company, Air Jamaica, and continuing subsidies to them both, it drains an awful lot of money. I doubt, however, that the People's National Party or the Jamaica Labour Party will make a campaign issue out of closing either.

It has been suggested to me that the slow-down in the economy is because the private sector is " ... trying to starve out Portia." I think that is ridiculous. There's not a businessman in the world who would shoot his own bottom line for any reason under the sun - somebody else's maybe, but not his own. A conspiracy of suicide is found only in cults, not in economic life.

Apparent search

So, the apparent search goes on for reasons for a lack of jobs yet skyrocketing public confidence. The Don Anderson CVM national poll has found the Jamaica Labour Party one per cent ahead in the polls. This has led to claims that they intend to win the seat count, while Mrs. Simpson Miller wins the popular vote.

If this were to happen, then the public must have a coalition in mind, because the JLP would be unable to govern. People would think Mrs. Simpson Miller had been robbed, and not in the least be interested in any electoral system, much less first past the post. As far as they're concerned it's a one-horse race.

I doubt Dr. Omar Davies, Finance Minister, can shed any light on the matter either. I doubt I'll even listen. In an election year there will be no new taxes, but user fees will probably be snuck in later. His usual hobby horse of cigarettes and liquor is sure to take an added tax beating, so he should have no problem financing the budget. I certainly shed no tears for him.

The financing of the two political parties is quite another matter. Even now the private sector must be setting up its own internal sub-committees to try to guess when the election will be coming, and what level of draw-down on private sector funding might be expected.

If all goes as it has from the very beginning, they're expecting to be told a pack of lies. So even now they must be scratching their heads in bewilderment. They have no way of verifying the expenditure, and tremble at the thought that they might be called upon to do so under some new laws not yet passed in the House of Representative. How they must wish they had a crystal ball!