John Rapley

No doubt, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice flies into the chaos and violence of the Middle East grateful for the respite it will give from Washington. It is hard to be a Republican in these days. It is harder yet to be Condoleeza Rice.

Public anger at the conduct of the Iraq war, which already threatened to turn the Republicans out of Congress in this year's elections, has grown worse. Recent revelations and a sensational new book have added to Democratic excitement.

A recent intelligence assessment admitted that the Iraq war has, at least for now, augmented rather than diminished the threat of terror. There is further evidence that the White House has been less than forthcoming with the truth about the war. Then to make matters worse, the shocking announcement this week that a Republican lawmaker had sexually harassed teenaged boys, and that the affair might have been concealed by his superiors, has cast a gloom over U.S. Republicans.

Far from best' '

So things would be difficult at the best of times for a Republican Secretary of State. This is far from the best of times for Ms. Rice, though. Her star had already been sinking. Her diplomatic initiatives in the Middle East had been largely blown out of the water by the recent war in Lebanon. The Bush administration's backing of Israel's military approach cut short her initiatives. It also compromised the administration's position in the Middle East, moreso because Israel did not come out the victor it had hoped to be.

But now, amid the recent spate of dramatic revelations, there comes news that the Secretary of State, when she was National Security Advisor, received a bold intelligence warning in the summer of 2001 warning that al-Qaida action was imminent, but ignored it. Ms. Rice says she cannot recall the meeting. But independent sources have now verified that it at least took place.

So things are warming up back home, and it's a good time for her to take a breather. Yet if a trip to the Middle East will give her that, it's questionable whether she will chalk up any more successes abroad than she has recently at home. Notionally, she has travelled to the Middle East to advance the peace process.

What peace process? The Palestinian territories, divided between a Hamas premiership and Fatah presidency, and squeezed to desperation by an Israeli and international blockade, have exploded in a near civil war. Israel, still licking its wounds over its Lebanese humiliation, is marking time before it gets even.

Meanwhile, although the Bush administration would like to continue isolating Hamas, its efforts to forge a 'moderate' Arab coalition would seem to have failed. Ideally, the U.S. Government would like to reinforce the position of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who hails from the Fatah Party, and further weaken the Islamist prime minister.

Not popular

This policy is not popular in the region. Islamists are not necessarily seen as the source of Palestine's problems right now. Fresh from its fight against Israel, Hezbollah has been enjoying a surge in popularity throughout the Middle East. The U.S., on the other hand, has compromised itself by an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq and its nearly unquestioning support for Israel.

In this context, it is hardly surprising that Ms. Rice has, so far, made few inroads that would redound to her or her administration's strategy. Rather than join a coalition, Arab governments that are close to U.S. are instead calling for it to do more to revive the peace process. It's a safe bet that Ms. Rice will return to Washington with little to divert the attention of journalists from her and her party's woes.

John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.