Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

Dr. Lucien Jones

DEATH is likely to come knocking in one of three forms if you are between the ages of five and 29 years - motor vehicle injuries, child cluster diseases and HIV/AIDS.

According to a joint World Health Organisation (WHO)/World Bank report, these are the leading causes of deaths worldwide based on 2002 statistics.

The report says road traffic injuries is the second leading cause of death in the five-14 age group behind childhood cluster diseases.

In the age 15-29 cohort, road fatalities comes second behind HIV/AIDS and third behind HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in the 30-44 age group as the cause of death. This trend has caused the United Nations to believe the so-called silent killer, motor vehicle injuries, could eclipse HIV/AIDS as the world's leading traumatic killer by the year 2020.

Growing pandemic worldwide

Dr. Lucien Jones, who presented the WHO/World Bank document at a Gleaner Editors' Forum recently, warned that road deaths in the island could reach alarming levels if an active attempt is not made to stem what is now considered a growing pandemic worldwide. Already, 246 persons have been killed on the nation's roads this year in 214 fatal accidents, compared to 326 killed last year.

"We are running out of time. If we don't do something about it like now, the incidence is going to climb to astronomical levels," said Dr. Jones, vice-chairman and convenor of the National Road Safety Council.

The WHO estimates that in 2002, approximately 1.2 million people died from road traffic injuries, while another 50 million persons suffered injuries. Based on their projections, the total number of road traffic deaths worldwide could increase by 65 per cent between 2000 and 2020. If this holds true, approximately two million people could die in road traffic accidents in 13 years.

Traumatic killer

The WHO reports that with a projected decrease in deaths from HIV/AIDS expected in places like Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Caribbean by 2020, road deaths could replace it at the top as the leading traumatic killer.

The WHO estimated that 3.1 million people died in the world from HIV/AIDS last year, with 514 deaths occurring in Jamaica.

A quarter of all deaths from injuries in the world are a result of motor vehicle accidents, while between 20 and 50 million people are injured or disabled each year in crashes.