PRIME MINISTER Ariel Sharon has loomed so large over Israel, it is hard to imagine what the country will be like without him. A fighter or commander in all the country's wars, minister in several governments, and now Prime Minister, he has become a reference-point for the country's contemporary politics. A controversial character - to some a war criminal - he also revealed a pragmatic streak in his willingness to dismantle Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories.
Indeed, many say that only Sharon, for long the champion of settlements, could also be the architect of their removal. And, in pursuing that strategy of separating Israel from its Palestinian lands, Sharon broke up his party and set off on his own. Momentum, and the popular mood, seemed to back him.
However, his new party is strongly identified with him. Whether or not Mr. Sharon recovers from his stroke, it seems highly likely he will have to withdraw to the background of Israeli politics. What will follow is highly uncertain. Polls indicate that his party, and the goal to disengage Israel from much of the West Bank, will remain popular with or without Mr. Sharon at the helm. But, these are early days. With an election two months off, much could happen. It is not inconceivable that a government even more hostile to the Palestinians could take power.
Central to developments in the Middle East will be the role Washington will play in the interim and after the elections. Interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is not a popular political figure in Israel, but he is viewed favourably by the Bush administration mainly flowing from his many hours of negotiations on behalf of Sharon in the U.S. Already political analysts are suggesting that the Bush administration will attempt, in not too subtle ways, to sway Israeli opinion towards Olmert.
Yet Israeli politics is notoriously unpredictable and fluid. Olmert will be under pressure to be the typically tough leader, for however short a period, while at the same time helping the process of negotiating an agreement with the Palestinians that is acceptable to the majority of Israelis and Washington.
Once again, Israel will hold the world's rapt attention. But, it seems a reasonable conclusion that we are in for a period of uncertainty, and possibly major change, in the Middle East.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
