By Don Robothom, Contrubutor
BIZARRE MELODRAMAS occur in Jamaican politics from time to time, as in any country. But last Sunday's events at the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) conference rose to new heights of the absurd, even for us. The former leader of the JLP swept heroically into a conference he had vowed publicly not to attend the day before, while 'Shame and Scandal in the Family' burst from the boomboxes in the National Arena. The only thing missing was the People's National Party (PNP) anthem 'A Come Mi Jus' a Come'. Two dons in the dance!
As has been pointed out by others, this well-scripted entry to a tumult of hysterical acclaim, must have been carefully prepared. The timing, collusion with factions inside, the aptly chosen mood music, the cheap sensationalism all this attention to detail bore the stamp of the master himself. Who could doubt who was behind this or what was the political intent? Notice was being served in the most brazen and defiant manner.
It is a measure of Mr. Seaga's power and Mr. Golding's ineptitude, that all of this could be pulled off, right under his very nose, while Mr. Golding and his conference organisers remained blissfully in the dark. The lesson is clear: Mr. Seaga may no longer carry the official title of leader but he is still a force to be reckoned with. He is present and accounted for and reporting for duty. This is one old soldier who seems to have no intention of fading away, or of going quietly into the good night. He intends to make his presence seen, heard and felt. Mr. Golding and his allies may have been strong enough to relieve him of the formal title of leader. They have not been strong enough to decisively defeat him politically.
Can a political party, or any other organsation for that matter, have two leaders? To pose a famous marxist question: Can there be a dual power? No doubt, in some heavenly kingdoms, perhaps in Scandinavia, such things occur and are fruitful. In the real world of our chronically contentious Jamaican society with its tribal politics, the very idea is absurd. Least of all when that organisation is the faction-ridden JLP. Least of all when one of the de facto co-leaders has the personality and political baggage of Mr. Seaga.
Yet this is precisely the prospect that Bruce Golding, the JLP and Jamaica faces if something is not done to put a stop to this sad farce. It is possible that I am mistaken and that last week Sunday's comic opera was an isolated event an outburst born from a deep personal pique. I hope so. But the omens are not good.
For there is another matter: the small detail of Mr. Golding becoming the elected representative for West Kingston. Contrary to what some imagine, the everyday organisational basis of Mr. Seaga's power rests not on any male enforcers. It rests on a body of highly loyal and dedicated women who Mr. Seaga has publicly praised from time to time. Will this wondrous regiment transfer its allegiance to Mr. Golding overnight? I doubt if this could happen, even if Mr. Seaga wanted it. I wonder if Bruce has thought through the full implications of that political reality right in his backyard?
GOLDING'S CONFUSION
Moreover, in another forum, Mr. Seaga has been quoted as stating his very firm opposition to a central point in Mr. Golding's programme of constitutional reform the separation of powers. Apparently, he intends to make his views known and in no uncertain terms. But if this and other contra-Golding interventions on major issues of public policy are made by Mr. Seaga so soon and on a regular basis, where will this leave the JLP? What effect will such pronouncements have, delivered in his inimitably trenchant and laconic style? Where will all this leave Mr. Golding and his programme of change and reconciliation?
This is not going to work. I happen to agree with Mr. Seaga's position that Mr. Golding's proposal for an executive president is confused. It is an extremely bad idea. It is typical of Mr. Golding to latch on to fashionable ideas and to regurgitate them in stentorian tones designed to sound authoritative in order to impress the credulous. Pure mouth. Pay no attention to it. Usually these ideas have not been thought through in the Jamaican or any context. Using the power of the constitution (the much-despised state!) to cap the deficit and debt is another odd idea from this pro-market but conservative politician who also happens to fear the market!
Has Mr. Golding not heard of the Franco-German disregard of such silly hubris embodied in the dead and buried 'legislated' European Union deficit targets? Has he not heard of Argentina? Can it be that he is so naïve as to imagine that powerful global financial forces can be bent to the will of a small open economy by means of a constitutional amendment or two? This confusion is also reflected in his recent comings and goings on regionalism which no one can make head or tail of. Perhaps these confusions are what Mr. Seaga had in mind in his wounding characterisation of Mr. Gold-ing's leadership qualities, or rather the lack thereof.
The introduction of an executive president in a small country like Jamaica, already inclined towards charismatic politics, will in fact have the opposite effect from that intended by Mr. Golding and his defenders. A president elected independently from the legislature will have his or her own separate popular mandate. The tendencies to hero (and heroine!) worship and demagoguery, already strong in our political culture, will be exaggerated even further.
The chances of the vote going one way for a presidential election and another way for the legislature are remote. And, at the same time, this independently elected president will also be the party president. In other words, he or she will control the apparently independent legislature through the back door. Such an executive will be immeasurably more powerful and centralised than our current one. People who unthinkingly repeat this separation-of-powers mantra are in for some nasty surprises if their wishes are fulfilled.
BREATHING SPACE
But having said that and there are many more objections which can be made to Mr. Golding's ideas-one must return to the central point. Mr. Seaga is no longer the leader of the JLP. Mr. Golding is the duly elected leader and his immediate successor. It is not a politically viable situation, nor is it in the interest of Jamaica, for Mr. Golding to be second-guessed publicly at every point by his immediate predecessor, relishing his new role as a professor of public policy. Whatever one may or may not think of his policies or personal qualities, surely Bruce Golding deserves to be given the breathing-space to develop as a leader and to consolidate his position?
No one can deny Mr. Seaga the right to his own views and to express them as boldly as was his wont when he was the 'One Don'. But this is not a matter of rights, but of politics and, incidentally, of the national interest. A bitterly divided JLP with double leadership may be a godsend to the PNP and bring tears of joy to their eyes, but it is definitely not in the national interest. So a solution has to be found to this serious national political problem. It is not just a matter for the JLP.
A facetious person may be forgiven for crying out for some generous philanthropist to offer Mr. Seaga a protracted second honeymoon, say to North Korea rather than China this time, perhaps for about three years! Alas, such a godfather is unlikely to come forth. It therefore appears that there is no alternative to politically confronting and defeating these born-again tendencies in Mr. Seaga. This can be accomplished but is bad news for Mr. Golding, Mr. Seaga and all of Jamaica.
The reason is this: any effort to confront what some call the 'traditionalist' tendency in the JLP cannot be achieved without Mr. Golding becoming even more the captive of youthful factions than he currently is. They are the ones who will be the footsoldiers (and the generals!) in any such anti-Seaga struggle. This will not be pretty. In fact, in the interest of Jamaica (and his own), Mr. Golding needs urgently to reduce not increase his dependence on such persons. He is already too beholden to them. Launching a new political struggle against Mr. Seaga would therefore end up weakening both Mr. Golding and Mr. Seaga and bringing forward people who in fact need to be pushed further back. And out.
Therefore, a way has to be found to persuade Mr. Seaga to withdraw from the fray with dignity. A moratorium and cooling-off period, followed by confidence-building measures, are needed. This by no means requires a retreat into oblivion by Mr. Seaga. This is inconceivable in any case and, from another point of view, undesirable. What is really needed is for Mr. Seaga to agree to exercise his considerable influence more discreetly in a manner which allows Mr. Golding room to consolidate and grow. Taking a broader and longer-term view, such statesmanlike behaviour is also in Mr. Seaga's interest. There are persons in Jamaica who have the will and the means to accomplish this difficult feat of persuasion. The ball is now in their court. And in Mr. Seaga's.
