Patterson The governing People's National Party (PNP) has pushed ahead into a slight lead over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), according to a poll conducted by Don Anderson on behalf of The Gleaner.
However, the majority of those surveyed expect to see a change of Government when the next general election is called this year.
A total of 1,105 persons were interviewed for the poll which was conducted between January 10 and 21. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent.
Of the persons interviewed 24.1 per cent say they intend to vote for the PNP when the election is called compared to 23.1 per cent who say they intend to vote for the Opposition JLP.
This is the first time in close to a year that the PNP has led the Opposition party in the polls. The PNP's surge also comes against the background of rising crime, massive job losses and economic stagnation.
Forty-six per cent of those polled had no response or said they did not know for whom they would vote in the next parliamentary elections which Prime Minister Patterson said will be held before the end of this year.
Almost six per cent of respondents said they would vote for the recently-formed United People's Party (UPP) as against 0.9 per cent who intend to vote for the six-year-old National Democratic Movement (NDM).
Persons were responding to the question: "Which of the political parties do you intend to vote for when elections are called?"
In his analysis, Mr. Anderson pointed out that the PNP enjoys support among males, older persons 45 and over and upper income persons in Kingston, Clarendon, Manchester, St. Thomas and Trelawny.
The JLP, on the other hand, has good support among females, persons under 34 and from the poor segments of the population. This support is, however, marginal. From a parish level, the JLP is strong in St. Catherine, St. Ann, St. James, St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland, Hanover, Portland and St. Mary. Again, this support is marginal.
Newcomer UPP enjoys support among females, persons 35-44 and voters from middle income groups. The NDM, however, is weak in every area.
But even as the PNP enjoys a slight lead, 55 per cent of those polled say they expect to see a change of Government when the election is called. This is compared to 30.6 per cent of those interviewed who said they did not expect to see a change of Government and 14.4 per cent who said they did not know.
They were responding to the question: "Whenever elections are called, do you expect to see a change in Government?"
Segments of the population who expected to see a change in Government included both males and females, all persons up to 54, middle and low-income earners and those in all parishes except St. Thomas.
"It is important to point out that the expectations need not be consistent with how these persons are likely to vote when the elections are called," said Mr. Anderson in his analysis.
