THE EDITOR, Sir:
There are lessons to be learnt from the extreme volatility in oil prices of recent years. While political instability in oil-producing countries might be important drivers of supply volatility, increasingly, industrialising countries like China and India are driving demand. Underlying all of this is the reality that oil is a diminishing resource and is becoming harder to find in the quantities we demand. As things are looking, we might soon regard $100 per-barrel oil as cheap. Recall that less a decade ago, oil was around $10 a barrel.
It is past time to get serious about alternative power sources. The recent rapid run-up in oil prices is not the first, and almost certainly won't be the last, or even the worst. Countries such as ours should ponder the wisdom of locking ourselves into this source for electricity and transportation. Shifting to other fossil fuels like natural gas and coal is hardly the answer. As our recent disappointment with the Trinidad gas deal showed, gas is also accompanied by supply problems and the accompanying price volatility. Coal might be comparatively abundant, but is also a copious emitter of greenhouse gases. We can expect 'clean coal' technologies to emerge in the future, but Jamaica has no coal and so the supply-side risks remain.
Nuclear, a sort of bogeyman to many, is re-emerging as a viable electricity source. Considerable experience in the design and management of nuclear power stations have significantly lowered the risk of accidents. France generates about 75 per cent of its electricity from nuclear. They got going on the nuclear route in the wake of the oil shock of 1973. Did we miss an opportunity then? Even the Americans, for all their skittishness about safety, generate about 20 per cent of their electricity from nuclear. Nuclear's big downside remains disposal of waste. Despite these realities, there are more than 400 operating nuclear plants worldwide, generating about 17 per cent of electricity needs.
The future is now. As even the wealthiest countries acknowledge the financial and environmental cost of fossil fuels, there will be ever greater focus on finding alternatives. BOJ Governor Latibeaudiere recently sounded the alarm on the current and likely future impact on our economy of rapidly rising oil prices. Our oil bill is increasing so rapidly that the hard currency drain is threatening national development. The Government is pouring in a lot of resources and pinning great hopes on finding commercially viable quantities of gas and oil. The question we should be asking ourselves is whether we can continue to focus on fossil fuels with only passing glances at alternatives.
No greenhouse gases
Solar, like hydro, nuclear and wind, generate no greenhouse gases. While Jamaica has very limited hydro potential, it has greater wind resources and enormous solar potential. Wigton Wind Farm is a good start, but I am amazed at the level of official indifference to solar energy. Solar technology is developing rapidly and the technologies are becoming ever more efficient and affordable. Germany, which has far less sunshine than us, is probably the world leader in solar now. Why aren't we taking solar seriously? Will we wait until we cannot afford or obtain fossil fuels before we start really developing alternatives? Let's not miss the boat ... again.
I am, etc.,
MICHAEL R. NICHOLSON
P.O. Box 5171
Kingston 6
