David Jessop

A little over a week ago China launched a missile into space. It destroyed an ageing Chinese communications satellite and in so doing caused it to become only the third nation ever to have shot down an object in space. Irrespective of Beijing's tactical reasons for doing so, it confirmed China's position as a power to rival the United States.

This global ambition is more quietly reflected at a regional level. China's relationship with the Caribbean continues to grow in carefully differentiated ways depending on Beijing's assessment of a nation's strategic importance, its capacity to provide raw materials, its ability through its financial services regime to facilitate investment, or a nation's willingness to support a one-China policy at the United Nations and elsewhere.

Economic influence

Its policies in the region have been marked by pragmatism and a considered exercise of its economic influence. Thus it has been China, rather than any Commonwealth cricket-playing nation, that has built stadiums for the cricket world cup. Or in the case of the Dominican Republic - one of the few nations in the region that maintains formal relations with Taiwan - it has continued to increase its trade, up to US$490 million in 2006 compared with just US$180 million with Taiwan.

India, too, is expanding its global role, albeit at an economic rather than political level. In the last few days the huge Indian steel company acquired the Anglo-Dutch steel company Corus for US$11.3 billion, making it the fifth largest steel company in the world.

In the region too, India is beginning to increase its influence. The Confederation of Indian Industry plans to hold a Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) conclave on February 14 in New Delhi. The country's Essar Group is building a US$1.2 billion steel plant in Trinidad and Tobago. And Manipaul University in India has just announced that it is establishing a campus in Antigua that will offer education in a number of disciplines including communication studies, nursing, pharmacy, and tourism.

Major international player

Closer to home, Brazil has emerged as a regional and international power. It has begun to offer itself as an alternative pole in the Americas to the United States, albeit in a sometimes muddled way. Internationally it has become a major player together with India in determining how far and how fast trade liberalisation moves forward at the World Trade Organisation. In the Caribbean, it is slowly beginning to make its presence felt through investments such as those shortly to be announced involving Jamaica's sugar industry. It is also likely to come to be seen as a strategic partner if later this year it begins to jointly promote with Guyana the investment and development opportunities that will flow from the completion of the road from Brazil's underdeveloped North East to Georgetown.

Russia, too, is redefining its global role through its ability to control the supply of its vast reserves of oil and gas in a manner that allows it to simultaneously project its power, maintain domestic nationalist sentiment and increase its reserves.

It, too, is engaged with the region. Guyana's President, Bharrat Jagdeo, has just visited Moscow where he met with Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, with whom he discussed a large possible investment by Russian aluminium giant RusAl, the second largest primary producer in the world of aluminium. Its business sector is looking at other opportunities elsewhere, not least in the tourism sector.

What each of these unrelated developments point to, from both an international and a regional perspective, is the way that the global balance of political and economic power is shifting away from those nations that Caribbean governments have been historically closest to.

While relations remain positive with the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and the European Union, their international outlook is also in flux.

For example: The European Union, although the region's largest aid donor, has made clear its development and trade priorities are with regions of the world other than the Caribbean. The special relationship with the United Kingdom continues to redefine itself and is trending to drift towards security and governance. At the same time, new partners in Europe are emerging. Spain, most notably, has begun to take a political and economic interest in the English-speaking Caribbean and Ireland's economic engagement is growing rapidly.

Political vacuum

In the case of the United States, the present political vacuum in Washington when it comes to think about the region may be coming to an end. Importance is being given at a regional level to a high-level conference on the Caribbean that will take place in the U.S. capital from June 19-21. This ambitious event aims to create a new dialogue with the U.S. and at revitalising U.S. investment. It may well include Caribbean heads of government meeting with President Bush and other senior Administra-tion officials. Despite this being welcome, no one should be under any illusion about the need for realism about the limits of U.S. interest or active involvement in the region.

In a matter of days, Caricom's Prime Ministerial subcommittees on the Caricom Single Market and Economy (CSME) and External Trade Negotiations will meet in Jamaica.

Their prime purpose will be to resolve a number of issues that have effectively halted the region's ability to progress in its trade negotiations with Europe. But central to all of their deliberations will be achieving a consensus on how the pace of progress towards implementing the CSME relates to the rapidly changing world order

In the short term it may be possible to address the region's difference with the European Commission.

Jamaica's Foreign Minister, Anthony Hylton, has suggested the region should not be forced by Europe to adhere to a timeline if it is not satisfied that it has negotiated the best possible agreement for Jamaica or Cariforum, given that any new arrangement will fix trade relations with Europe for the foreseeable future.

But in the longer term he and others well know that the global political and economic adjustments now under way make it imperative that any strategic decision about the future of the region needs to achieve a new and better balance between the emerging powers and those with which the region has an historic relationship.

David Jessop is the director of the Caribbean Council and can be contacted at david.jessop@ caribbean-council.org