By Garwin Davis,
Staff Reporter
WESTERN BUREAU:
THE VOTERS of St. Ann North East go to the polls today in a by-election which some observers see as a prelude to the next General Election.
Ever since the Prime Minister announced the election date three weeks ago, the politicking leading up to today's contest between the parties has been very intense. Except for a few minor skirmishes, it has remained largely violence-free.
For the ruling People's National Party (PNP), this is probably, as many political analysts feel, the real defining moment of the P.J. Patterson-led administration. Considered vulnerable, due in large part to the high crime rate and a popular discontent, defeat here in what over the years has been a happy hunting ground, would signal, some observers feel, the beginning of the end.
"The PNP has to win by a 1,000 votes or more to feel good about its performance here," said analyst and former party General Secretary, Dr. D.K. Duncan. "Anything less, including a loss, in this PNP stronghold could spell trouble for the future."
PNP General Secretary, Maxine Henry-Wilson is predicting a victory margin of 2,000 votes or more and noted that her party was ready to answer all the critics.
For the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), using a tennis metaphor, this could be game, set and match. A win here, the party feels, would put it in a position to pressure the PNP into calling a general election, which the JLP thinks it would win hands down.
A close loss, leader Edward Seaga feels, could still be considered a moral victory, especially since his party lost by 2080 votes in 1997. A similar defeat, though, would stop whatever talk there was of a momentum for the JLP and pretty much send the party back to the proverbial drawing board.
"If we should win this race that would be it for the PNP," Mr. Seaga said. "Like we did with Michael Manley in 1980, we would then pressure them into calling a general election."
The National Democratic Movement (NDM) may be facing the most daunting prospect of all three parties and, as Dr. Duncan believes, cannot afford to get less than a 1000 votes to keep its viability as a political party alive. A victory, he thinks, would not only be a major boost for the NDM, but would also be a tremendous body blow to the two traditional parties.
All three parties, in a last ditch attempt at trying to woo some of the uncommitted voters, held major rallies and motorcades throughout most of Tuesday. Independent candidate, Astor Black, did all of his campaigning on the airwaves.
The PNP had their rally by the Ocho Rios clock tower, where Minister of Water Dr. Karl Blythe, promised a convincing victory for candidate, Carrol Jackson.
The JLP's rally was in St. Ann's Bay where Party Leader Edward Seaga urged his supporters to go to the polls early and send the government a clear signal that "enough is enough."
The NDM had their meeting in Steer Town, where the party over the past few weeks, has been making a pitch for the large squatters' votes in the area. Candidate Barbara Clarke reminded supporters that this was their chance to "make history."
The parties however did very light campaigning yesterday. The security forces were seen busy preparing for what could be a very hectic day.
Commissioner of Police Francis Forbes, who has been mandated by the Prime Minister to provide heavy security for the election, said that the police would be complemented by Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) soldiers with both a large aerial and on the ground presence.
And dismissing charges by the JLP that the security forces were hand-picked to suit partisan purposes, the Commissioner said that "we will have as much security as necessary to properly deal with matters that may arise."
Left to be seen though is whether the JLP waited too long to get their machinery rolling behind the candidacy of Shahine Robinson or whether the candidacy of Michael Belnavis, former caretaker who dropped out of the race last year, would have made a difference. Left to be seen also is whether the PNP's spending spree that basically characterised most of their campaign will make a difference. Will former Member of Parliament Danny Melville's resignation and subsequent parting shots at the government weigh on the minds of voters when they go into the voting booths?
And for the NDM, was Barbara Clarke visible enough or was her message strong enough to sway voters?
Many political watchers also believe that the candidates did everything except addressing the issues and are blaming residents and the business community for not being more forceful. But former president of the St. Ann Chamber of Commerce, Jeanne Dixon, said that the onus was on the candidates to have sought meetings with the business community and said that she was disappointed with the kind of rhetoric they had all brought to the table. Today, all questions will be answered.
