If not entirely, Mr Mark Kerr-Jarrett is mostly right about the link between Jamaica's serious problem of crime and the poor state of agriculture.

Indeed, the case made recently by Mr Kerr-Jarrett, the Montego Bay businessman, at a food festival in that city, is validated not only by casual observation and anecdotal evidence, but by the empirical analyses of experts.

"What has happened is that the rural economy has collapsed as people have had to migrate to the cities to look for work," he said. "This has resulted in the creation of inner-city congestion and ... the development of informal settlements and a tremendous amount of idle hands in our youth and young people for which the Devil can find ample use."

Significant demographic shifts over the past 40 years or so have left more than half of Jamaica's population living in urban and semi-urban communities, many of which suffer from advanced forms of urban blight: derelict buildings, overcrowding, inadequate public utilities, high rates of joblessness, a breakdown in law and order, and antisocial behaviours.

Global market collapse

Of course, while the process has accelerated, it is not entirely new. For generations, as the rural economy found itself under stress, whether because of the collapse of global markets for sugar or a decline in domestic agriculture, people have sought new lives in Kingston and/or other urban centres. The creation of the urban ghettos of western Kingston, which were later exploited for politics, are the direct outgrowth of this circumstance.

Our concern, like that of Mr Kerr-Jarrett, is that in the absence of urgent and concentrated action to shore up rural economies, with special attention paid to agriculture, the rural-urban drift will accelerate with catastrophic social consequences.

The deep global recession has pushed Jamaica's bauxite mining and alumina refining sector to near collapse, costing thousands of jobs and a deep hole in the national accounts. The closed alumina refineries are in rural communities that, largely, depend on the plants for their economic viability.

Expansion

This has happened at a time when remittances are down sharply and agriculture, despite a 10 per cent growth in the first half of the fiscal year, is not in the best of health. Its expansion was from a low base.

In fact, a little over half a decade ago, agriculture accounted for more than six per cent of Jamaica's gross domestic product. Last year, it was 4.8 per cent, with sharp declines in production for domestic consumption and exports. The loss of preferential markets for sugar, following abandonment of export bananas, will, at least in the short term, worsen the pain of export agriculture.

The Government is implementing a social intervention programme in sugar regions, but this is unlikely to be enough. Other initiatives, already launched, or contemplated by Agriculture Minister Dr Christopher Tufton, must be widened and deepened - like implementing protective tariffs for certain products, which is allowable, in certain circumstances, under World Trade Organisation rules.

It is important, too, that the administration, in the face of the economic crisis, supports Dr Tufton efforts to modernise agricultural production and management systems, including moves to lure big, and even foreign, capital to the sector. At stake are the twin interrelated matters of food security and social order.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.