Some would say the driver had a false start early Wednesday morning, despite widespread expectations of a ride along a new course. What was billed as a make-or-break political speech for Prime Minister Bruce Golding turned out, in the words of arch-critic Ralston Hyman, as a "damp squib".

The PM himself had built up expectations; some would even say anxiety, over his planned presentation to Parliament on Tuesday as the Supplementary Estimates were being debated. At the town hall meeting in May Pen he signalled that tough decisions had to be taken and that he was ready to talk frankly and openly with the Jamaican people in his parliamentary address, not holding anything back.

He then called Labourites together for a meeting on Sunday and, using military language, summoned the troops to support the commander in warding off the fiery darts which would be coming after him following his bold speech. The country was expectant. Rumours were flying about burdensome new taxes being imposed, of sharp job cuts to the Government service this year and of harsh, punishing IMF-type measures being imposed to satisfy the dreaded Washington institution. Televisions and radios were turned on from early afternoon, as though it were a track-and-field championship.

But the People's National Party was in no hurry to hand Bruce Golding a handsome audience and, worse yet, as the Standing Finance Committee meeting dragged on till nightfall, to give him the prime time television audience. One thing they know, Bruce Golding can talk. Why give him all this free time? The people waited. And waited. Bruce Golding waited. And waited. When he rose to speak early Wednesday morning, the people, exhausted by anticipation and having used up all their adrenaline, left him with his Parliamentary colleagues downtown.

Telephone rates

Some were singing Marley's Waiting in Vain song even after sacrificing sleep to hear the PM's 58-minute presentation. They could breathe a sigh of relief that the only things that "moved up" were telephone rates and taxes for people moving out of the country. Thank God! But a speech on public sector reform and rationalisation they could well hear leisurely when there was little else to do.

Is the driver himself running out of steam? What the dickens happened on the way to Gordon House? I don't know. But one thing I would advise is that like PJ Patterson, never underestimate Bruce Golding - even when you don't understand what on Earth he is up to.

The prime minister said some important things in that speech which bear reflection: "So burdensome is the total debt that for the last 10 years our interest costs and principal repayments have exceeded our total revenues. For this year our interest costs and principal repayments total $325 billion, while our total revenue is estimated at $310 billion". A graphic, compelling set of statistics.

Golding went on to say that Jamaica is basically in the position today where its revenues are just covering two line items - Debt servicing and public sector expenditures. Debt service costs are $325 billion and the cost of running Government is $157 billion. With a total budget of $561 billion, there is only $79 billion to finance Government programmes. So unless you are going to restructure or repudiate your debt obligations or significantly cut Government, you have little alternative in the short term, but to limp along.

An objective analysis of our economic situation shows that we have some deep structural and fundamental problems which cannot be solved simply by changing political administrations. You might argue that the Jamaica Labour Party Government recklessly underestimated the global economic crisis, burying its head in the sand and that this has cost us dearly. You might say that an approach to the International Monetary Fund should have been made much earlier, rather than adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

You might argue that the Ministry of Finance did not have the best technical team to prepare the budget in April and that, as Ralston Hyman has contended, the budget preparation and presentation were "shambolic".

Fundamental problems

But even if Hyman's favourite minister of finance were in power with supposedly better foresight, more competence and a stronger technical team, you still would not be able to solve the underlying fundamental problems of the Jamaican economy. This is what we have to come back to, after the political parties have engaged in their combat.

This is why, painful as it is, the rationalisation of the Government service is crucial in an underperforming economy like ours. And in that sense the PM's presentation was crucial, after all. I maintain that public sector rationalisation is the low-hanging fruit; that it is more achievable and has less potential economic fallout than debt repudiation or a restructuring which creates panic in the international market.

My view is that politics - and economics - is the art of the possible. In this highly integrated, fragile and interdependent global economy where international capital rules, one does not "diss" the international capitalist system big time and get away. My view is that we have to fight for reforms at the global level and use diplomacy and coalition-building to press for changes to the international economic system to refashion it in the interests of the developing countries. We can't fight the system by ourselves.

So Golding, having said clearly that he is (realistically) not going to buck the international capitalist system by unilateral debt restructuring or even taking on a liquidity management programme, has no other option in the short to medium term, but to cut the public sector. Yes, he should grow the economy, incentivise production, boost agriculture and industry, pull in more foreign investments and do all those fine things, but guess what? They won't be achieved in the short term. Successive governments have been attempting all of that with little success.

In terms of immediate impact, Golding's early morning presentation might be dismissed with a yawn, but with less sleepy eyes; it sent a significant signal. It is just that he has given us an early warning signal of the category-four hurricane that will hit the public sector next year. And when it comes it will have serious political costs. And it will be nearer to when elections are constitutionally due, and so, after all, Golding might be right that that cover-of-dark, early-morning presentation was really historic.

Golding is going to need all the help he can from labourites if he carries through and really cuts the executive and seriously slash expenditures. For labourites themselves will be hurt and polarised. And at a time when the People's National Party is coalescing around their charismatic leader, Portia Simpson Miller. Portia at conference was in fighting, combative form. In terms of raw politics, she was hitting the right notes and she resonated with the crowd. Her shrill cry about "wicked, uncaring government" was music to the ears of Comrades, evoking a dance of death for the JLP.

A field day Portia

Portia, always the populist leader, will increasingly find enough fodder as the economic fallout from the Government's IMF path bites. If the PM is bold enough to cut thousands of jobs in the public sector and if he fulfils his party manifesto pledge to legislate on fiscal targets (which I have always opposed), Portia will have a field day. (Another bad neo-liberal idea is an independent central bank)

Remember now, emotions will always trump reason and politics will always have precedence over economics. Logic and "nice argument" don't woo citizens. When Golding's reforms begin to hurt not just the poor and marginalised, but sectional interests, there will be a backlash. And the PNP will exploit that.

Omar Davies was in fine form on Wednesday morning. I have always regarded him as one of our most effective debaters. He delivered a highly reasoned and pungent critique of the Government, which even Finance Minster Audley Shaw graciously praised. The prime minister also commended him on points. It is clear that they were impressed with Omar's presentation. Omar's was a statesman-like presentation, potent and politically effective and devoid of foolish rhetoric. He acknowledged that the problems with the original Budget was not simply Audley's fault, but that he might not have had the best technical help which he should have had from the bureaucracy. The PM himself has acknowledged that the finance ministry needed technical strengthening and moved Dr Wesley Hughes to the ministry as financial secretary. Hughes is one of the country's brightest and most competent public servants and he will bring to that ministry the comprehensiveness of vision and breadth of analysis which will stand the ministry in good stead.

Plausible suggestion

Davies in his presentation not only criticised, but offered solutions, including the plausible suggestion of taxing people like me who are benefiting from high interest rates on Government paper. (Selfishly, I am glad the Government has not followed his suggestion, but it is a debatable one.)

Shaw is today more humble, often more restrained than he used to be. He displayed commendable calm under pressure during the Standing Finance Committee meeting on Tuesday. He also gave a good presentation in the debate. It must be hard for the PNP, and Portia Simpson Miler in particular, not to attack the JLP on its economic performance in light of the JLP's strident polemic against the PNP in the past. The JLP made simplistic, facile statements about the economy, only to discover in the real world of governance that things are not as easy and as simple as they appeared from the Opposition stands. The PNP is returning the favour to them, as the game goes on.

But after all the political games have been played and the points scored, we are still left with the grim facts which the prime minister put to the Parliament on Wednesday. If we elect the PNP tomorrow, these problems will still be there and as much as know Davies is a bright man and that Portia genuinely cares for the poor and oppressed, that will not be enough to get us out of this mess. The problem for Golding is, the country has gone to sleep on him.

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist who may be reached at ianboyne1@yahoo.com or columns@gleanerjm.com