IT IS not the first time in Japan's post-war history that the Liberal Democratic Party has been voted out of office. But, with its previous stint in opposition being short-lived, it is by far the most decisive defeat. The LDP governed Japan more or less continuously from 1955, until last weekend. On Sunday, Japanese voters said enough was enough. They stripped it of two-thirds of its parliamentary representation. A rump of its former self, the LDP will now sit in opposition to the new government of the Democratic Party of Japan.

The LDP defined old boys' politics. For most of its post-war history, Japan's politics were characterised by backroom dealings among elite politicians, who distributed the spoils of power to powerful constituents in the business lobby. If the country was known to the outside world for its dynamic export economy, its domestic economy remained hidebound by regulations and sheltered by protectionism, making progress all but impossible.

Still awaiting recovery

If this system seemed like a recipe for corruption and inertia, for decades ordinary Japanese put up with it. The economy was growing, incomes were rising and the agony of war had been put behind them.That began to change over the last two decades, as Japan's property bubble burst and the economy slowed to a crawl. In effect, Japan's crash predated the rest of ours, but it was felt much the same way. The Government responded as it always did in these circumstances, with a 'stimulus' package designed to push the economy back out of recession.Nearly a generation has gone by since the Japanese stock market crashed from its lofty heights, and we are still awaiting a sustained recovery.

Part of the problem is that Japanese stimulus programmes do not follow the standard Keynesian model, which involves putting money into the hands of consumers in order to boost demand. Instead, the government has repeatedly handed money to big business interests - the theory being that they will then create jobs. More often, they have created inefficiency, excess capacity and a huge government debt. This makes Japan's long-term prospects grim. Further complicating the picture is the fact that Japan's population is ageing. The Japanese have small families, and the country will not go the route of many Western countries, of supplementing a declining birth rate with immigration.

Out of ideas

All in all, Japan's economic future looks uncertain, and the politicians who have been running the country for half a century seem to have run out of ideas. Rumblings have been growing for years, exemplified most noticeably in the rise of Junichiro Koizumi earlier this decade - a flamboyant character who broke the mould of Japan's rather colourless leaders. But last weekend's election brought the revolution - as some are calling it - to a head.

It is not clear how much of a change the DPJ will usher in. They are more Keynesian in their economics, in that they prefer to put money into consumers' hands than to give it to big business. On the other hand, they have proposed tax increases which would largely nullify the consequent gains of this policy. On the campaign trail, they talked of weakening the tight bonds between the US and Japan that governed the post-war landscape. But once elected, they said no dramatic changes were coming.

In fact, it may be a while before we know what the new Japan will look like, and indeed whether it will be very new. With almost no experience of government, Japan's new leaders are largely unknown quantities. But what seems likely is that barring an LDP resurrection, Japan's political regime has gone through a quiet revolution.

John Rapley is president of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), an independent research think tank, an affiliate of the University ofthe West Indies, Mona. Feedback may be sent to columns@gleanerjm.com.