There is the fact that the Opposition People's National Party (PNP), after 18 years in government, appears rudderless and incoherent. A few of its shadow ministers do sometimes articulate seemingly credible positions, but these appear to be individual prescriptions rather than portions of a strategic and cohesive whole. An early vote, therefore, would catch the PNP with its morale sapped and, in the face of recent events, politically disorganised and disoriented.

But there is a more fundamental reason why the PM might consider it efficacious to have an early election. Jamaica is facing an economic crisis and about to enter into an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for US$1.2 billion in credit.

Fixing the economy, if the Government is serious, will demand the administration of some bitter fiscal medicine. Mr Golding, like others, may consider it sensible that his Jamaica Labour Party get a mandate for the tough decisions it will have to take, including trimming public-sector jobs.

Whatever else may be figuring in his election calculations, there is a big reason why Mr Golding may be afraid to head into a poll: his party cannot afford to finance an election. The situation, however, is worse for the PNP, for which financing has dried up in the private sector, which has lost confidence in the Opposition, partly because of its incoherence and uncoordinated lurches.

elections must be cost-effective

This circumstance, we feel, provides another compelling case for the registration of political parties and state financing of elections. Indeed, it is urgent that the Electoral Commission of Jamaica publish its recommendations on the subject and that Parliament proceed with its debate and passage of the relevant laws. But the management of elections must be cost-effective if the public is to agree.

The broad arguments in favour of state funding of campaigns are well-known. In the 2007 General Election it is estimated that the PNP and JLP spent, between them, around $1.5 billion, or around $25 million per constituency. This does not include what candidates spent individually. Additionally, the budget for the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) in 2007/2008 was around $2.2 billion.

Combined, therefore, Jamaica in 2007 spent over $3.7 billion on elections.

The public does not know where the money spent by the parties came from. It is reasonably assumed that much, if not most of it, was donated by people seeking influence. Drug dealers, money launderers and other unsavoury types may be among them, unbeknown to the parties. State funding of parties and donor transparency will lessen the potential for influence peddling and corruption.

Elections, too, need not be so expensive, and the EOJ must manage its costs. Based on our analyses, that office expects to spend over $9,000 to register each new voter, which seems very high. Moreover, the $36.6 million per constituency or $1,645.89 per registered voter, that was allocated to the EOJ in 2007, in the absence of a credible explanation, seems extravagant.

It must be within our capacity to manage a general election, including the cost of campaigning, at $10 million per constituency, or a full cost to the state of $600 million.

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