There is no one who understands these things, or none that we know, who expects the credit agreement the Government is about to sign with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will come with anything but tough conditions.

But Prime Minister Golding has said that these would be nothing that his administration would not have implemented - with or without the fund - to combat a fiscal crisis that has been exacerbated by the global recession. The Government, in other words, is assuming full ownership of the programme, inherent in which is an assumption of a national, collective responsibility.

What the administration has, however, failed to do is to outline, with specificity, what is to be done and how it expects the burden to be shared. This is important if it expects a national buy-in. The Government has up to now talked around the issues with broad, ephemeral allusions - except for the unilateral freeze on public-sector salaries via the withholding of a seven per cent pay hike to public-sector employees.

Fiscal deficit

But we maintain, as have others, that this, even assuming the successful divestment of Air Jamaica and the Government's sugar interests, is hardly enough. Jamaica, with its fiscal deficit of more than seven per cent of gross domestic product, cannot afford its bloated, overstaffed public sector that comes with a wage bill of $112 billion or one-fifth of the national budget.

Indeed, it is, in part, the Government's avarice for debt to shore up the public sector that keeps interest rates high, crowds out the private sector, limits entrepreneurial activity, stifles job creation and weakens economic growth. Ultimately, the effect is that there is an insufficiency of profit from which taxes are paid by individuals and firms.

By most estimates it would require the slashing of upwards of 15,000 public-sector jobs to help bring about a desired fiscal equilibrium, assuming that this was the Government's primary route to macroeconomic stability. That, admittedly, would be a tough choice for any administration, especially in these turbulent times.

This newspaper insists, however, that the administration cannot shy away from the hard decisions. But we are equally clear that job cuts are part of the mix of strategies to fiscal reform.

Consequences

As we have pointed out before, high interest rates have consequences other than as a deterrent to private investment. While keeping rates high help to minimise capital flight, ensure relative exchange-rate stability and moderate inflation, they have a severe impact on the national coffers - more money has to be found to service the debt, which exceeds $1.2 trillion. In the current fiscal year, for instance, debt servicing, at $309 billion, will take up 56 per cent of the Budget. This level of outlay is clearly unsustainable.

In recent months, we have, in these columns, called for a national, non-partisan and serious dialogue on debt restructuring. The authorities, understandably, have been reticent about an overtly public engagement for fear of its signal to external lenders.

But many of the holders of Jamaican government debt are Jamaican nationals, who have enjoyed a long run of this windfall and who, we suppose, have a stake in Jamaica's future. Enlightened self-interest underpins the logic of rebalancing. The consequences of instability or collapse ought to frighten them.

It is time, we feel, to start the conversation in earnest.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner. To respond to a Gleaner editorial, email us: editor@gleanerjm.com or fax: 922-6223. Responses should be no longer than 400 words. Not all responses will be published.