"Life is not one damn thing after another. It's the same damn thing over and over."
- Edna St Vincent Millay

Given the worldwide economic crisis and the Jamaican fallout of drastically shrinking remittances and bauxite collapsing to almost nothing, elections are the last thing on people's minds right now. So the general reaction to last week's North East St Catherine by-election was "Stewps. Me too busy trying to pay my bills to worry 'bout that foolishness!"

But as much as we love to cuss them, and as useless as they so often seem, politicians pilot our ship of state and so can never be completely ignored. It's not always clear how much power for good they have, or how inclined they are to use that power to benefit the nation as a whole. But a bad government making poor decisions can ruin a country very quickly. So if only from a negative point of view, who runs Jamaica is a crucial matter which sensible people pay at least some attention to.

The pundits predicted a walkover for the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP's) Gregory Mair. But everyone was surprised by the margin of victory. In September 2007 it was 6,064 JLP to 5,105 PNP votes, or 54 per cent to 46 per cent. This time around it was 6,329 JLP to 3,572 PNP, or 63 per cent to 27 per cent. So Labour's victory margin increased from nine per cent to 27 per cent, with the JLP getting 265 more votes and the PNP losing 1,433.

No matter how you crunch these numbers, only one conclusion can be drawn - the PNP suffered a humiliating defeat. Yes, the Government can feel vindicated to some extent. The slight four per cent increase in votes suggest that the electorate feels Bruce Golding's administration is probably doing as a good a job of fighting the global financial crisis fire as can reasonably be expected. It's perhaps also proof that the JLP's new communication strategies, like town hall meetings, are bearing fruit. PM Golding has his faults, but no one can say he doesn't listen to suggestions and criticisms.

But the real election story was the PNP losing 28 per cent of its votes in less than two years, a catastrophic decline by any measure. Yes, the JLP administration - like all governments in meaningful by-elections - probably pumped extra state funds into the constituency. And yes, the Comrade candidate - thanks to the party's own lack of preparedness - was an unknown. But anyone who cannot see that this vote was a complete rejection of the PNP as currently constituted is either drunk or crazy. As party General Secretary Peter Bunting's posted on Facebook a few hours after Tuesday night's defeat: "'Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - Albert Einstein'."

PNP deeply divided

Now, one problem with Jamaica is that whenever you criticise a political party it accuses you of favouring the other. But I have never been a member of any political party, am not close friends with any politician, and have never asked anything of a politician, except good governance of the country I live in and love. My problem with the 2009 PNP is exactly the same problem I had with the 1999 JLP - it is deeply divided and organisationally incompetent and is, therefore, not seen by most Jamaicans as a serious alternative to the incumbent government.

Being able to vote means nothing if you don't have at least two credible choices. Since only the fear of being booted out keeps rulers reasonably honest and efficient, it stands to reason that good governance requires a competent Opposition. If the party not in power is seen by most people as too incompetent to be ever trusted to run the country, then the party in power will start to feel and act as if it can do anything and still get re-elected. This is what happened from 1993 to 2007, and this is what will soon start happening again if matters continue to unfold as they have.

It's amazing really, how in less than two years the public images of the JLP and PNP have almost completely switched. From its 1993 general election loss to its 2006 local government victory, the JLP was widely viewed as divided, disorganised and irrelevant. Now it's hailed as a well-oiled political machine. Conversely, the PNP that was then regarded as a well-oiled political machine is now increasingly seen as divided, disorganised and irrelevant. It's almost like political déjà vu in reverse.

Indeed, writing this column felt like basically taking one of my many 'The JLP needs to restructure itself' critiques of a decade or so ago, and changing a few dates and names. If the mirror image transformations continue apace, I will soon be digging up and altering the titles in some old 'The PNP government is lazy and corrupt' pieces! On current form, the over-under time frame bet is probably about 12 months.

Under siege mentality

It's said that a Cannae - where Carthaginian forces crushed the Roman army in perhaps history's most famous battle - requires both a strategically masterful Hannibal and an ineffectual Varro. And whatever their other differences, many argue that the Edward Seaga of 1993 to 2006 and the Portia Simpson of today shared a short-sighted inability to focus on anything but the leadership of their party.

Of course, they had a common history - Seaga was MP for West Kingston for over 40 years, Simpson Miller has been MP for neigbouring South Western St Andrew for over 33 years. Did decades of representing garrison constituencies in both cases produce an under-siege mentality unable to see any bigger picture than immediate survival?

Well, Seaga is now retired, but Simpson Miller still has the chance to prove such an analysis wrong. For after the 2007 general election defeat, the PNP commissioned a study to see exactly where it had gone wrong. The Brian Meeks Appraisal Committee Report made a number of concrete recommendations which, for whatever reason, have not yet been put in place. After the PNP debacles of West Portland and North East St Catherine, surely, it is now imperative for the party to now do as its hired experts advised. That is if it wants to remain a credible electoral alternative.

One proposal from the report reads: "The present bifurcation (division) of the PNPYO and Patriots needs to be rethought. Perhaps the party needs to abandon both and establish new-look youth organisations with fresh credentials and a clean break with the recent past."

Certainly, one of the most glaring contrasts between the present JLP and PNP is that while we hear and see a lot of intelligence and common sense from young Labourites, the junior Comrades often seem bereft of all logic and reason. Just compare Warren Newby's first-rate performance as Gregory Mair's campaign manager in North East St Catherine, to his PNP counterparts' delusional denial of reality after their West Portland trouncing.

One of the driving forces behind the JLP's transformation from political donkey cart to electoral Ferrari was no doubt the energy and new ideas generated by the G2K group. The PNP badly needs to create a similar organisation of its own.

Wake up call

One thing is sure. If the events of last Tuesday are not seen by the powers that be in the PNP as big-time wake-up call to immediately get its shop in order, then the party faces a very bleak foreseeable future. And chances are, so does Jamaica. It's not impossible for a country with an irrelevant Opposition to be well governed, it's just very unlikely to remain so for long.

Feedback may be sent to changkob@hotmail.com or columns@gleanerjm.com.