Letter - NIR prediction was 'worst-case scenario'

Published: Wednesday | May 20, 2009



Don Wehby, minister without portfolio in the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service. - Rudolph Brown/Chief Photographer

THE EDITOR, Sir:

I am extremely disappointed by the article published in the May 15, 2009 issue of the Financial Gleaner titled 'Doomsday NIR prediction rattles financial sector'.

The piece completely misrepresented my statements at the Scotia DBG breakfast function.

My presentation was based in the context of a prolonged global crisis, and I made the point very clear that in a time of crisis, it is extremely important to do a range of scenario planning.

I made the point that should the worst-case scenario occur, that is, the world crisis deepens, tourism declines significantly, remittances fall drastically, the bauxite industry remains shut down for a long time, and oil prices climb back to the levels they were last summer, that one could foresee the NIR being at that decreased level.

This is clearly not represented in that article, nor was it represented in a similar item entitled 'NIR expected to fall to US$800m', which was also grossly inaccurate.

An article was published on the Government news agency JIS website, and it also covered my statements at the Scotia DBG event.

It was titled 'Senator Wehby says Jamaica may need IMF support, if global crisis persists'. It read, "Senator Wehby pointed out, however, that his visit was 'exploratory', to determine the options for Jamaica, in the event that a worst-case scenario happens."

It quoted me as saying: "As we speak, our net international reserves are at about US$1.6 billion. That's about 12 weeks of imports and that's a comfortable level. However, if you look at the worst-case scenario, a year ahead, that US$1.6 billion could become US$800 million, and that's when you really (would) have to start having a discussion."

With the current crisis and the fragility of the system, we must be very careful about publishing misinformation.

If as a country we are going to ask the Government to be frank about the challenges we face, we must also be responsible in our reporting of those challenges.

I am, etc.,

Don Wehby

Minister without Portfolio

Ministry of Finance

and the Public Service