As the new year approaches, there are a series of economic trends that all Jamaicans should be aware of, as they will impact everyone in 2009. The signs of the times are imminent - a rapidly deteriorating global economy with adverse impacts, albeit in different areas and to varying degrees, on all domestic economies around the world.

In Jamaica's case, stagflation, to an uncertain extent, is looming. Growth will be stagnant and prices will increase coupled with rising unemployment. Navigation of the oncoming storm requires two mindsets for complementary res-ponses in the short term (six months to a year and a half) and long term (two years and beyond). However, both are products of a singular national vision and a common knowledge of Jamaica's priorities.

Economic survival

Undoubtedly, the short-term emphasis is on individual and collective economic survival. Thus the spotlight is on the Government and its actions to keep the Jamaican economy afloat. It is imperative that the Jamaican Government stay disciplined, while tightening the nation's belt wisely. An important element of such a national strategy, as highlighted by this paper's editorial on December 26 (Advice for tough times, PM), is for the Government to restrain itself from crowding out the private sector and resist the tem-ptation to swell public-sector budgets to maintain employment and perpetuate existing inefficiencies.

In the long term, Jamaica needs to look past the symptoms and begin addressing the root causes of national underdevelopment. In this regard, the interconnected and complex inter-woven nature of Jamaica's political, economic and social problems cannot be overlooked. In my opinion, the island's political culture manifested in the garrisons and the historically stratified and deficient educational system are equally culpable for the evolving spiral in crime and violence in the Jamaican society. Therefore, Jamaica's response and its vigour ought to be commensurate with tackling an entrenched, yet malfunctioning, social and political system.

National goals

We must start by asking ourselves, where we see our island in 20 years and what path will we chart to get there. What are our national goals and how do we work as individuals, yard and abroad, to achieve that collective aim? I believe Jamaica's path to prosperity lies in increased focus and investment in health and education. The foundation of long-term development is a first-class education and health system that produces able-bodied, informed and aware Jamaican citizens eager to take advantage of global technologies.

The aspiration is simple: all Jamaicans whether you live in Jacks Hill or Discovery Bay should be given equal access and opportunity to the same high-quality education and health services that prepares them to contribute to national development. As 2009 dawns, let's hope that vision, leadership and a national consciousness emerge in the midst of a precarious global environment.

I am, etc.,

RICHARD WELSH

rowelsh@gmail.com

Stanford, California