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Disadvantage, McCain: Independents' support split
published: Tuesday | October 14, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP):

In a bad omen for Republican presidential nominee John McCain, a recent Associated Press-GfK Poll shows Independent voters divided about evenly.

Independents are a quarter of US voters right now, and the poll showed them leaning 44 per cent for Obama and 41 percent for McCain.

Some years, that wouldn't be so bad for the Republican presidential nominee. But because Democrats decisively outnumber Republicans this year, McCain needs an edge among Independents to help close that gap.

Voters heavily favor Obama

"He's got to win a majority of Independents in order to win the presidency, obviously," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster not working for McCain. With minority voters heavily favoring Obama, McCain has to win white Independents in particular, Ayres said. That group comprised three-quarters of Independents and leaned slightly toward the Republican in the AP-GfK Poll.

Earlier this year, Independents were a strength for both contenders. Obama, the Illinois senator, and his mantra of change won Independents in Democratic primaries while McCain, the Arizona senator, was the choice of Independents in the Republican contests.

As election day approaches, though, Independents are sounding more like Democrats than Republicans on the campaign's overarching issue, the reeling economy.

Eighty-two per cent of Independents said they worry the economic crisis will inflict a long-term toll on them, compared with 89 per cent of Democrats and 65 per cent of Republicans, according to the AP-GfK poll.

Like Democrats, and unlike Republicans, most Independents said they'd prefer a candidate they trust to handle the economy to one they trust on national security. They said Obama would better deal with the financial crisis and better understands its impact on them.

"Obama has more distrust in the system that has gotten us into this mess," said Monica Arce, 37, an Independent from Portland, Oregon. "Deregulation is the wrong way to handle things, and McCain wants deregulation."

McCain, a long-time champion of deregulation, recently proposed a stepped-up federal role in righting the economy by having the government buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of failed mortgages and restructure them to make them more affordable.

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