The United States (US) presidential election campaign, already riveting, grew yet more fascinating last week. The significance of Sarah Palin's nomination as Republican vice-presidential candidate was lost on nobody. Regardless of who wins in November, history will be made: the US will elect either its first black president or its first female vice-president.
The immediate impact of the nomination of the gun-toting Palin was to energise the Republican base.
Her appearance before the convention blew the race wide open. Conservatives rallied eagerly to someone they consider a kindred spirit. And any fears that a young, inexperienced governor of a remote state (Alaska) would fail to run well in the campaign were dispelled by her impressive convention speech. The McCain-Palin ticket rocketed to the front of the race.
On the face of it, the two camps are neck and neck, with the Republicans enjoying a slight edge. But the headline figures may belie what's happening on the ground. The edge probably still goes to the Democrats.
Fed up with eight years of George W. Bush, Americans are in a mood to turf the Republicans out of Washington. It is all but certain now that both houses of Congress will go Democratic. More Americans now register as Democrats than Republicans. That means that while both parties have fired up their bases, the Democrats start with a larger base.
Grass-roots organisers
On some measures, the Republicans have drawn closer to the Democrats than a few months ago. Early in the year, the turnout of grass-roots organisers was much higher among Democrats than Republicans. In fund-raising, the Democrats were far outpacing the Republicans.
On both counts, Republicans are now catching up. But they may need to do even better than that. State polls reveal that while Obama is currently holding all the states which John Kerry won for the Democrats in 2004, he is leading in some of those which went Republican.
Meanwhile, it's far from clear that independent voters will rally to the Republicans. Palin may assuage fears in the weeks ahead. But many of her conservative views appear to be at greater variance with mainstream opinion, than are Obama's most liberal stances.
Besides, it is probably not unreasonable to assume that the Repub-licans have now peaked. Palin's widely acclaimed speech could have had the paradoxical effect of raising expectations of her.
That leaves just the big unanswered question - what has been called the elephant in America's living room. How might racism affect Obama's chances?
There is no question a portion of the US electorate doesn't want a black president. What is less clear - because few people want to confess their racism to pollsters - is how large this constituency is. But the primaries appeared to reveal that one in six Democrats might not vote for Obama.
Offsetting that, however, are two other factors. African-Americans may turn out in record numbers to vote Democratic. And so, too, may young voters.
All in all, I think that if the Democrats avoid getting rattled by the 'McPalin' surge and stick to their game plan, Barack Obama will still win this election. But it will be close.
John Rapley is president of teh Caribbean Policy Research Institute, an independent think thank affiliated to University of the West Indies, Mona. Feedback maybe sent to column@gleanerjm.com.
