Cedric Wilson

Years ago in an interview, reggae star Peter Tosh was asked why he had decided to split from the singing group Bob Marley and the Wailers to perform as a solo act. To this, he quipped (and I paraphrase): "Jah, had certain messages for I and I to bring forth to the people. And I couldn't do that by being a back-up singer harmonising behind Bob." While, it is difficult to conceive of Peter Phillips, the People's National Party (PNP) vice-president, claiming to be a messenger of God, he certainly believes that he has songs to sing, which will not be heard if he remains in the shadow of party president, Portia Simpson Miller.

But unlike Tosh, who went out and formed his own band, while allowing Bob to continue to "Chant down Babylon", Phillips has no such intentions: he wants to take over the lead role from Simpson Miller. Phillips, himself a political scientist who lectured for years in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies, undoubtedly understands the historical contours of Jamaican politics. He witnessed the futility of university colleague Trevor Munroe who, for years, struggled to gain a foothold with his Workers' Party of Jamaica - to no avail; he watched a disenchanted Bruce Golding sever ties with the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) to sweat and toil with the National Democratic Movement that he founded - to achieve naught.

In the rock concert of Jamaican politics, only heavy metal is played and the stage is only big enough for two performers: the JLP and the PNP. Third parties are doomed. Phillips' desire to sing his own song is no secret, so his announcement to challenge Simpson Miller for the PNP presidency at the next party conference, therefore, comes as no surprise.

CRUELTY ABOVE CIVILITY

Simpson Miller bemoans the fact that her ambitious vice-president did not notify her of his decision before making it public. And frankly, although not necessary, it would have been polite. However, the disciples of Machiavellian politics would endorse Phillips' behaviour. It was a blow to the opponent, and in the philosophy of Niccolo Machiavelli, the high priest of 16th-century politics, cruelty is esteemed above civility. Indeed, politics is not a stage where delicate arias are performed; it is a heavy-metal affair where people are entertained by jarring, ear-shattering sounds.

Simpson Miller has also pointed out that this is the first time in the 70-year history of the party that a sitting president will be challenged. Yet, again, this is no surprise. For sure, no other leader in the party's history has been more vulnerable. In February 2006, when she became party leader, it was achieved with a small majority of 237 votes over Phillips. And while the majority of the party delegates favoured Simpson Miller, most of the PNP members of parliament were in support of Phillips. In addition, even though Simpson Miller's charisma and grass-roots appeal boosted the PNP's chances of electoral victory in the final months before the polls, doubts of her effectiveness as prime minister were pervasive. It was this doubt that eroded the base of her popularity, causing her to come up short in the September 2007 general election.

SUBTERRANEAN RIFT

Furthermore, despite the efforts to appear united, the subterranean rift, which exists since the bitter 2006 presidential contest, has not healed within the PNP.

Apart from that, Phillips does have a lot going for him. In the last PNP administration, he was a star performer in the Patterson Cabinet. As minister of health, he spear-headed a number of reforms that saw greater efficiency in the public-health sector. When he served as minister of transportation and works, he took on the chaotic public-transportation system, tackled the congested roads of Kingston and St Andrew, and achieved impressive results. On top of that, he is articulate and is able to think on his feet. Therefore, the challenge Simpson Miller faces is not from a lightweight contender. He wants to sing, and he has a song.

To play the devil's advocate, the question may be asked: How could Simpson Miller avert the present challenge? On this point, Machiavelli would have advised: "If the ruler wants to keep hold of his new possessions, he must bear two things in mind: First, that the family of the old prince must be destroyed; next, that he must change neither laws nor taxes. In this way, in a very short space of time, the new principality will be rolled into one with the old." It, therefore, may be argued that Simpson Miller followed Machiavelli's second piece of advice, but not the first.

THE PRESENT CHALLENGE

In a sense, her administration was not very different from that of the Patterson government, but her opponents in the party were not crushed, and as such, the present challenge was long in the making. Simpson Miller is clever and displays a toughness that reflects her long climb from the base of the party to the top - she has moral limits. The Machiavellian genes may exist in her bloodstream, but they might not be strong. In this regard, Jamaicans should be happy.

But now that the challenge is at hand, and nothing can be done to change the past, what advice would Machiavelli give Simpson Miller? No doubt he would say: "I shall only conclude that it is necessary for a prince to have the friendship of the people; otherwise he has no remedy in the times of adversity."

However, while that advice is crucial - victory cannot be guaranteed. Niccolo Machiavelli wrote down his political ideas while meditating on the ups and downs of his own political career and that of his country. In all of this, the character of the masses stood out and he felt compelled to warn all who chose politics as a way of life that "the populace is by nature fickle; it is easy to persuade them of something, but difficult to confirm them in that persuasion".

Cedric Wilson is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. Send your comments to: conoswil@hotmail.com.