For all of Dr Peter Phillips' coyness on the subject, it is probably the worst kept secret in Jamaica that he is weighing whether to challenge Portia Simpson Miller for the leadership of the People's National Party (PNP) at the party's annual conference in September.
Dr Phillips came in a relatively close second to Mrs Simpson Miller, among four contenders, when they previously vied for the job in early 2006 on the retirement of the PNP's former president and Prime Minister P.J. Patterson. Since then, Mrs Simpson Miller has had a largely undistinguished year-and-half stint as PM, the PNP came excruciatingly close to a fifth consecutive term in office and Mrs Simpson Miller is now leader of the Opposition with an itch for vindication. She wants to lead the PNP back to office.
Dr Phillips' camp, however, obviously believes that there is no clear or bigger purpose to Mrs Simpson Miller's leadership, except perhaps that it is founded in personal vindication and foggy notions of helping the poor. Dr Phillips and his advisers, though, must confront a significant question in considering whether to go through with this attempt to unseat Mrs Simpson Miller in what, for the PNP, would be another draining battle. To what end does Dr Phillips want the leadership of the PNP if he decides to dare the hurdles?
Some of the obstacles with which he will have to contend are contained in the findings of a recent opinion survey conducted for this newspaper by pollster Bill Johnson. It found that nine months after it lost the election, the PNP had a six percentage point over the Jamaica Labour Party in voter preference.
Significantly, too, Mrs Simpson Miller, her popularity having previously declined, was again on the rise. She enjoyed (52 per cent) a six-point favourability rating over Prime Minister Golding (46 per cent), although a plurality believes that Mr Golding would make the better prime minister.
But more critical to Dr Phillips' ambition is the finding that Mrs Simpson Miller enjoyed a 17 percentage point lead over him as the person who Jamaicans felt would do the better job as leader of the Opposition. Significantly, two-thirds of the backing for Mrs Simpson Miller came from PNP supporters, while only 20 per cent gave Dr Phillips their imprimatur.
For Dr Peter Phillips, there must have been a fundamental cause to want to buck those numbers. It can't be about fetid transition. If Dr Phillips should challenge for the leadership of the party, it has to be because he is committed to a radical overhaul of the party and a deep and unswerving commitment to a new and renewed politics in Jamaica, aggressively pursued.
Dr Phillips, in that regard, would have to turn his face hard against the corrupt, in and outside the party, including ejecting from its low and high councils those tainted by its stench. He must be willing to break the PNP's residual links with the hard men of violence and the destruction of zones of political exclusion.
These are not easy options and leadership has to be more about country than party and merely winning the next election for its own sake. So, if Dr Phillips can't find the guts for radical reform, he need not bother.
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