Left: People's National Party supporters cheer their candidate Donald Colomathi at a mass gathering in front of the Adelphi courthouse in East Central St James on nomination day. Right: Jamaica Labour Party supporters show support for Edmund Bartlett in front of the Adelphi courthouse in East Central St James on August 7 last year.

The People's National Party (PNP) has emerged the party more likely to form the Government if a general election were called now. But, with three in every 10 Jamaicans indicating little interest in the electoral process at this time, there is no reason why the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) could not maintain its hold on state power.

PM's position

That is the finding of the latest Bill Johnson poll, conducted days after Prime Minister Bruce Golding indicated he would be prepared to call a general election rather than allow anyone who did not win the majority of votes to take a seat in Parliament on the disqualification of the previous winner by a court ruling.

The Gleaner-commissioned poll, conducted by Johnson's team on May 31 and June 1, found that of the persons enumerated, 36 per cent would vote for the PNP if elections were called now while 30 per cent would vote for the governing JLP which won last year's general election.

According to Johnson, despite the lead, the PNP should be careful it does not begin to press the Government for an election.

"If they (the PNP) stay off white rum, they wouldn't be celebrating at this time. It's too early to call," the pollster commented.

The undecided

Johnson further noted that 22 per cent of the persons who voted for the JLP in the September 3 general election now say they are undecided or not interested in elections at this time, while only 12 per cent of the people who voted for the PNP say they are undecided or not interested.

"This means if there were an election, a lot of these ambivalent people would go back home, and the JLP has more people who would go home than the PNP, giving it a possible edge when the votes are counted," Johnson argued.

According to Johnson, the poll shows that the two parties remain in a close contest and either could emerge with a slight majority of the seats.

"There are a lot of cross-currents going on. One is that Portia Simpson Miller's popularity seems to be coming back but, on the other hand, people think Bruce Golding is a more effective leader," Johnson added.

In last year's general election, the two parties shared the votes almost evenly but the JLP emerged with 32 seats while the PNP finished with 28.

At that time, the Johnson polls were reflecting the JLP with 42 per cent support to the PNP's 38 per cent. But Johnson now says it is clear many persons who supported the JLP at that time are disillusioned by the performance of the Bruce Golding administration.

"I think there is some discouragement on the part of some people who voted for the JLP, who thought they were voting for a change, but some would say they got a change for the worse in terms of crime and increases in cost of living," said Johnson.

The Bill Johnson poll was conducted in 84 communities with 1,008 respondents. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.