ONCE AGAIN, Hillary Clinton's moment in the sun proved short-lived. On Tuesday night, she won a blowout victory in the Kentucky Democratic primary. But then, just a few hours later, her rival, Barack Obama, won handily in Oregon. In a speech in Iowa, where his run for the presidency started, he declared that he now had enough of the pledged delegates to take the nomination at this summer's convention.

Wisely, he held off on the victory dance. So close to triumph, there is no need for him to antagonise her supporters. He was very gracious in victory and lauded Mrs Clinton.

But, whether Mrs Clinton will accept the olive branch and withdraw from the race is another matter altogether. If not divisive, her speech in Kentucky was defiant. She made it clear that she was going to campaign through the last primary, which will be held on June 3.

Game of persuasion

She also left a strong hint of what might follow when she maintained that neither candidate would have enough votes to win the nomination after the primaries were finished. The reason she can reach a conclusion which contradicts Mr Obama's is that she is using a different maths. She is including the disputed Florida and Michigan delegations which, currently, are not headed to the convention. She is also intimating strongly that super-delegates, whatever their stated intentions, can change their mind at any time before the convention. In other words, those who say they support Mr Obama now could yet be persuaded to change their minds.

Last shot

That, I suspect, points to the likely Clinton strategy. After the primaries are finished, Mrs Clinton and her husband will spend the summer months lobbying superdelegates. She will say that whatever primary voters thought, Mr Obama can't win the election. White working-class Democrats and older women, they will say, won't support Mr Obama.

Why wouldn't she go the distance? The Clintons have reportedly judged that whoever wins this nomination will win the November election. Assuming that person goes on to a two-term presidency, that would mean Mrs Clinton's next shot at the presidency won't come for eight years. By then, she'd be closing in on 70 - not an impossible age to run for president (John McCain is 71), but one that diminishes her odds considerably. So, this is her best, possibly last shot.

Besides, what harm can she do herself by fighting dirty to win the nomination? Following her logic, since Mr Obama will still win the presidency, all will be quickly forgiven within her party. Democrats might even thank her for making Mr Obama a stronger candidate.

Open wounds

Should she pursue this strategy, though, there are risks. Exit polls reveal that wounds are opening in the Democratic Party, and divisions hardening. At the start of the campaign, few Democrats said they would never vote for Mr Obama. Now, many do, and the numbers appear to be growing. For some, the stumbling block is Mr Obama's race, which many blame the Clintons for making an issue.

However, for many - especially older women - the campaign against Hillary has become conflated with sexism and a fight on feminists. To some, Mr Obama has become a sort of trope for male dominance in the Democratic Party. And should the campaign go all the way to the convention, there will not be much time for the party to heal its wounds.

It is turning into a game of chicken. It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs Clinton decides to stare Mr Obama down to what might be a bitter end. The pundits screaming that she can't win will, quite possibly, only stiffen her resolve.

John Rapley is president of Caribbean Policy Research Institute, an independent think tank affiliated to the UWI, Mona. For feedback: columns@gleanerjm.com.