Sitting on my desk is a newspaper clipping from the early 1980s. Back then, a graduate student in development studies, I was intrigued by one of Africa's success stories. Zimbabwe, the story announced, was producing so much food that it was paying its farmers to reduce production so as to keep prices from falling.

Robert Mugabe looks much younger in the story's picture than he does today. A lifetime in politics will wear one down, I'm sure, which makes me wonder why on earth the old man has hung on so long.

But hang on he does. And if he was once regarded as one of Africa's great leaders, his star has dimmed of late. Not to put too fine a point on it, Zimbabwe is a mess. It has far and away the world's highest inflation rate - so high that nobody is sure what it is, though it is certainly well into the tens of thousands per cent. Citizens are reduced to carrying around bags of bills, and from the time one joins a queue to the time one reaches the cashier, the prices on purchases will have gone up.

That's if there's anything to buy. The shelves of the country's shops are bare. For all intents and purposes, the formal economy has collapsed. Citizens are reduced to recirculating the foreign currency sent to them by relatives abroad. Fortunately for those left behind, so many Zimbabweans have left the country in search of work that a steady supply of money comes in.

Parallel economy

That has created a thriving parallel economy. Fortunes can still be made in Zimbabwe. But an economy based entirely on trade in imported goods, fuelled by remittances, is hardly sustainable.

Mr Mugabe blames colonialism and foreign meddling for the sorry state of his country. While there may be some basis to his complaints, they provide only partial explanation for the increasing violence, and decreasing output, of the country he governs. The sad truth is that with the economy in a shambles, foreigners are standing by and salivating, awaiting the old man's departure so that they might move in and snap up the country's assets. Post-Mugabe, Zimbabwe may become little more than a satellite of the South African behemoth.

The opportunity to move in may come soon. Or it may not. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this past weekend's election appears to indicate a seizing-up of the political establishment. It appears that the country has voted against Mr Mugabe. But it is not yet clear what will follow.

Political intimidation

Assuming Zimbabwe gets a new president, the question will become whether it can rebuild quickly. The country's administrative establishment has suffered badly from political intimidation in recent years. Nevertheless, pockets of resilience have remained, and the country's institutional framework may survive the transition.

The political directorate, on the other hand, appears to have been weakened severely in recent years. So too the military and security establishment. Farming - so central to the nation's economy - will take years to rebuild, with capital being scarce. What is clear is that a new government will not likely provide a quick breath of fresh air.

On the other hand, Zimbabwe's large diaspora may continue to provide the resources to help the economy rebuild. South African investment may also play a constructive role. Nevertheless, it will probably take years to return Zimbabwe to where it once was.

In the end, the great tragedy is that such good leadership became, in the end, so bad. Nobody but Mr Mugabe can know what his motives were, and he professes to share them with his god. Maybe so, but I'd love to be fly on the wall for that conversation.