Cedric Wilson

At his trial in 1953, Fidel Castro, the unrepentant rebel, acting as his own defence lawyer, declared, "Condemn me, it doesn't matter, history will absolve me." He was being tried for treason.

On July 26 of that year, Fidel had led an armed attack on the Moncado Barracks in Santiago, Cuba. It had failed miserably and was brutally crushed by the unpopular dictator, General General Fulgencio Batista.

For sure, it was a nothing short of a miracle that Fidel and his younger brother, Raul, were sentenced to 15 years in prison rather than executed.

Less than six years later a triumphant Fidel, who was released a couple years earlier, rode into Havana waving to the tumultuous cheers of jubilant supporters.

Batista had fled the country and the revolution he had dreamt of had dawned.

Last month, an ailing 81-year-old Fidel formally announced his retirement as president. Indeed, history has been on his side, he has survived incredible odds.

Stands as a colossus

Cubans ride in an old car on Havana's coastal Malecon on July 9, 2006. Travelling to Cuba is not illegal for Americans, but the Trading with the Enemy Act prohibits spending money on the island. If caught, unauthorised tourists from the United States can face civil fines of up to US$55,000, though many settle for smaller amounts. - AP

Among political leaders Fidel stands as a colossus bestriding Latin America and the Caribbean. He has escaped numerous assassination attempts, outlasted 10 American presidents, foiled a US-backed invasion of Cuba and made it through the hash economic realities of a US economic embargo.

Yet, after almost half a century of the revolution, it is apparent that change is inevitable. Certainly, it is not a matter of 'if'; the question is 'when'. And when it happens, it has implications for Jamaica, Cuba's closest neighbour.

When judged in terms of development, Cuba under Fidel has made significant progress. Before the revolution, rural poverty was severe and the distribution was savagely skewed.

Adult literacy outside of urban centres was 43 per cent; of all rural houses 75 per cent of them were mud huts, mostly with earthen floors; 90 per cent of the rural population was without electricity and running water and a mere four per cent could afford to eat meat.

A survey conducted in the mid-1950s pointed to chronic unemployment reaching a rate of 28 per cent among the rural labour force. In addition, 70 per cent of all farm lands were concentrated in the hands of less than eight per cent of holdings.

Much has changed since then. Today, Cuba has an adult literacy level of 99.8 per cent against Jamaica's 79.9 per cent. With life expectancy at 77.2 years, the average Cuban lives more than six years longer than Jamaicans.

The UNDP in its 2006 Human Development Report ranks Cuba 50 among 180 countries in Human Development Index, while Jamaica falls way down the scale at 104.

Political dissent

However, even with such an impressive record of human development, it is evident that the revolution has shown little tolerance for political dissent.

Estimates of political prisoners in Cuba vary widely. Estimates reach up to 50,000. In addition, over the last five decades some two million Cubans have gone into exile, many taking their chance on ill-equipped boats across the 150-mile span between Mariel, a port west of Havana, and Florida.

Yet, despite all of this, Fidel was still able to keep his revolution going. This was in no small measure attributable to the stature of the man, his phenomenal political skills and the considerable popularity he enjoyed over the years.

When General Batista fled Cuba, he ran off with an estimated US$100 million. But even before the Batista dictatorship, successive governments in Cuba were noted for corruption.

Fidel has never shown any appetite for greed, his focus was completely on nation building that mirrored his dreams. People have questioned his methods and even his sanity, but nobody questions his integrity.

At university, when asked what he would like to be, unlike his friends who wanted to be lawyers or poets he said he wanted to achieve "glory and fame". That ambition, above all other, possessed him, and the destiny of an entire generation of Cuba was interwoven in that pursuit.

Ironically, Fidel may owe more to the United States for his political longevity than even his own vision and tenacity. The bitter opposition of the US to the regime has never failed to galvanised internal commitment to the revolution.

And Fidel, the charismatic and shrewd politician that he is, was not afraid to use it to his own advantage. It was in times when the conflict seemed fiercest that he was most eloquent; it was at times when the balance seemed to be tipping in the opposition's favour that he was most cunning.

Over the years, for many scattered throughout the developing world, he has come to symbolises a gleaming fist of defiance raised unflinchingly in the mighty shadow of America.

Changes ahead

Nevertheless, nothing can and will stop the economic changes that are ahead. Yet, it is not primarily because Fidel now sports pyjamas why a change is about to happen.

The extreme version of socialism upon which the economy rests has been eroded. After the long Cold War and an intense ideological conflict over rival economic systems there is now almost universal acceptance that the free market is superior.

Symbolically, the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 heralded that victory sound that roared across Eastern Europe and reverberated through the Iron and Bamboo curtains of Asia. But it was not without the recognition that although the market is inherently more efficient than central planning it has grave shortcomings.

Another factor behind the change is the fact that a new generation has emerged. Approximately two-thirds of the people of Cuba today know nothing of the pre-revolutionary days and, as such, the appeal of the rhetoric and the values of the revolution are less potent.

This is the generation that is aware of the lifestyle of their relatives 50 mile away in Miami, and many secretly yearn for it.

In addition, the attitudes of Americans are changing. From as far back as 1975, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger stated, "We see no virtue in antagonism between the US and Cuba" and, to a large extent, the economic embargo has been kept in place due an anti-Castro lobby by exiles.

This is undergoing a transformation. A survey by Florida International University last year revealed that 65 per cent of Cuban Americans support dialogue with Cuba. This compares with 55 per cent in 2004.

Review relationship

In addition, both Democratic candidates in the US presidential race seems prepared to review the relationship with Cuba if they get to the White House in November.

Presidential hopeful Barack Obama has even gone as far as to say, if elected, "I will grant Cuban Americans unrestricted rights to visit family and send remittances to the island," while neither Hillary Clinton nor John McCain, the other presidential crusaders, appear less open to easing travel restrictions.

The softening of the Cuban American position on the government in Havana could be decisive.

Of significance is clear evidence that the Cuban government is telegraphing that a conceptual change process has begun. While avoiding the sensationalism that marked the outset of Russia's transition to a market economy under Mikhail Gorbochev, the Cuban government seem to have conceded that the old ways will no longer do.

Shortly after Raul was required to act as president last year, he initiated an open debate on the inadequacies of the Cuban economy.

At the National Assembly last month that saw Raul officially anointed president contrary to the expectation of many, Fidel's younger brother selected Jose Ramón Machado Ventura as his deputy, a comrade in arms during the struggle against Batista.

It was widely believed, at least by the media pundits outside Cuba, that the 56-year-old Carlos Lage would have been given the job.

Lage, an economist, has been linked to the reforms of the mid-1990s which saw investment in mass tourism and the encouragement of small businesses. Raul, who has been credited for persuading his brother to adopt mild market reforms a decade ago, should not be underestimated. Raul, who is less of a romantic than his predecessor, certainly does not want to be remembered merely as the little brother of the flamboyant Fidel. It is the effective execution of market reform that will redeem him from occupying a footnote in history.

Impact on Jamaica

Cuba has the advantage of being one of the last countries to move from communism to a market economy. It, therefore, can learn from the mistakes of those that went before - the bureaucratic challenges of East Germany; the chaos in Russia; the measured approach of China, and on and on. Changes should be anticipated, but not drama.

So, how will market reforms in the republic 90 miles to the north of Jamaica affect it? Strategically, Jamaica and Cuba are the islands in the Greater Antilles that are closest to the US.

Jamaica has the advantage of speaking English while Cuba has a market with a population of 11 million, three times that of Jamaica's. Additionally, the Cuban labour force is more educated and better disciplined.

The opening up of the Cuban economy will see additional investment flows into the country's tourist sector. This might mean a reduction in Jamaica's share of the Caribbean tourism market.

In the 1950s, Cuba was the tourism capital of the Caribbean and it may not be coincidental that mass tourism in Jamaica only began to gain traction with the onset of the US economic embargo. After Cuba embarked on moderate market reform in the mid-1990s, John Issa's Super Club and Gordon 'Butch' Stewart's Sandal's invested in the island's tourist sector.

Undoubtedly, with Jamaica's experience in the business, its future in tourism lies not only on the beaches of Montego Bay or Negril but is also connected to its capacity to invest in Cuba.

Trans-shipment challenge

Another area of challenge may come from the transformation of the rundown port of Mariel into a modern trans-shipment facility.

For about two years, the Dubai Ports World has been in negotiation with the Cuban Government with respect to the development of the port. If a deal is struck, it would result in an investment valued at US$250 million and the construction of a container hub by about 2012 that is closer to the US market. This would present serious competition to Jamaica's Kingston Harbour.

The development of a reliable and competitively priced electricity supply in Cuba could see the emergence of a formidable agro-processing industry. If its return to the free market is well managed, Cuba could well emerge in the next two decades as an economic giant within the Caribbean.

Economic development is not necessarily a game in which one player wins and the other loses. If the rules are fair it can be mutually beneficial. The spin-off from market reforms in Cuba could well be a shot in the arm for Jamaica. But it won't just happen by just wishful thinking - now is the time to plan; now is the time to negotiate; now is the time to act.

Cedric Wilson is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. Send your comments to: conoswil@hotmail.com.