The talks to end the political crisis in Kenya appear to be reaching somewhere. Last weekend, the lead facilitator for the negotiations, former United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, announced agreement on a review of last December's disputed presidential election. There were signs, too, that the parties might be warming to the idea of a power-sharing deal, which many people, apparently including Mr Annan, feel is necessary to resolving the conflict.
However, in matters of complex negotiations, when different interests are at stake, things can easily go awry. So, there is no guarantee, despite the promising trajectory of the talks, that there will be a positive conclusion. There is still time, and opportunity, for private and raw ambition, as well as political interests, to combine to derail the efforts.That is why the efforts of Mr Annan and others need international support; and pressure needs to be kept on President Mwai Kibaki and Opposition Leader Raila Odinga to do what is right by the Kenyan people. Indeed, their failure to act with statesmanship could exacerbate the current instability and push Kenya firmly into the status of another of Africa's failing states.They have starkly before them the evidence of just how quickly things can deteriorate. Up to last December 27, Kenya was considered something of a model for Africa. It had emerged as a multi-party democracy after decades of autocracy; it was relatively stable, and its economy was growing strongly. Most people would have said that Kenya's prospects seemed bright.But in the disputed elections, Mr Odinga, whose Orange Democracy Movement (ODM) won most seats in the Parliament, claims that the presidency was stolen from him. It is accepted that there were many irregularities in the presidential vote. However, President Kibaki insists that he was fairly elected.The upshot of all this has been political violence that has taken on an ethnic hue. More than 1,000 people have been killed and over 35,000 displaced.Like Mr Annan, we do not believe, as the Opposition initially insisted should happen, that rerunning the election would be wise at this time. A new campaign would perhaps only exacerbate tensions and lead to new violence.An independent review of what went wrong with the last poll and using the findings for electoral and constitutional reforms, as has been suggested, is the right thing. It would allow the country a kind of cooling off period and proposed constitutional changes to be deeply considered.Of course, getting the qualified majority necessary to push through constitutional reforms will demand collaboration between the Kibaki and Odinga forces in Parliament. And the whole process, including the review of all facets of the election, will take time - and the confidence of all the parties.Power-sharing is important, which is what Mr Annan will tell Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga today and he should insist that they give their negotiators mandates. Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, will take a similar message to the Kenyan leaders. The discussion should be about fine-tuning the modalities of power-sharing.We feel that Jamaica and its Caribbean Community partners who have a historical connection to Kenya should be sending a similar message to President Kibaki.
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