Don Robotham, Contributor 
Government and opposition representatives at the Vale Royal talks last Wednesday. - Norman Grindley/Deputy Chief Photographer
The Vale Royal talks have begun at last. That they took place at all was because of the enormous pressure which civil society brought to bear on the two political parties, especially on the reluctant leadership of the PNP. This pressure must be kept up at all costs. The minute that the politicians think they can get away with it, they will seize on some petty pretext to abandon them again.
The reason why the resumption of the Vale Royal talks is so important is not because of any hugging and kissing which may occur there. It is not because consensus on public policy is a good thing in its own right. The importance of Vale Royal goes way beyond such generalities. The point for us to remember is that the country is facing an especially challenging set of problems which simply cannot be effectively addressed without broad policy consensus across the society and the political parties.
DOUBLE DEVALUATION
The first such problem is the economy. By now it is clear that the economic sections of the JLP manifesto were not worth the paper on which they were written. All the significant expenditure proposals which could be shelved are being shelved, with more to come. It is very likely that there will be a huge increase in the toll road charges for Portmore, for example. The layoffs at the Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) are going forward. The possibility of significant layoffs in the public sector is real. Yet, with all this, the likelihood is that the deficit will be more than the 5.5 per cent which the Government is now projecting.
The US economy seems headed into recession with all that means for us in Jamaica. In addition to curtailing tourist arrivals and bauxite demand, a recession in the US has enormous implications for local prices. While it may bring some relief in gas prices, it is likely to result in sharp price increases elsewhere. This is due to the fact that as the US tries to stimulate its economy, the US dollar will tend to decline in value. At the same time, because of our growing budget deficit, chances are that the Jamaican dollar, too, will begin to depreciate against the US dollar. In other words, we will experience a double devaluation with dire consequences for price increases across a wide range of basic goods.
To deal with such a severe economic situation, the Government will be compelled to take drastic actions to maintain macroeconoic stability. Already, the recent statement from Moody's main-taining our credit rating, had a sting in its tail. It said its rating was conditional on how the Government acted in the near future to restore fiscal stability. The message to Jamaica was clear. Get your budgetary house in order, or else. In such an economic emergency, it will be extremely tempting for the Opposition to act irresponsibly and to exploit the economic problems of the country for selfish political gain.
It is, therefore, absolutely crucial that the Government secure an undertaking from the Opposition that it will not take the easy demagogic way out. There is a lot to negotiate in the fine print of policies to reduce our budget deficit, especially on which social groups should bear the burden of a fiscal adjustment.
CRIME AND VIOLENCE
The Opposition has a duty to insist that adjustments to our dire economic situation take place fairly. But it has an even larger duty. It has to ensure that its arguments are made within the framework of maintaining macroeconomic stability.
It, therefore, cannot simply 'oppose, oppose, oppose'. It must, above all, propose. Vale Royal should provide the opportunity for these crucial consultations to take place in a constructive and positive manner.
The second area of decisive importance on which we need consensus is in the area of crime and violence. In the coming months, the security forces will face even more serious challenges and be called upon to take firm action in fighting crime. In this, the Government has already received strong support from opposition spokesman on national security, Dr Peter Phillips.
The continuation, indeed enhancement of such support will be crucial for a successful fight against crime and violence. We cannot afford to have the necessary actions of the security forces being second-guessed by the Opposition. Broad bipartisan support for security policy is vital.
This goes beyond joint support for the actions of the security forces. It is obvious that police reform is one precondition of an effective fight against crime. Such reforms may involve some serious personnel changes which are likely to elicit strong objection from those in the security forces who are negatively affected.
The last thing we need is for such necessary changes to become a political football, undermining the efforts of Commissioner Lewin to clean up the force. Without strong bipartisan political support, the corrupt elements in the force will use political divisiveness to defeat police reform and to preserve their positions.
The same applies to an issue like the Evidence Act. Under one section of that act, as is by now well known, witnesses are allowed to give their statements without being subject to cross-examination by the lawyers of the defendant. This is a crucial provision of the law which is a powerful tool in the fight against crime. This section of the Evidence Act has been challenged and the challenge defeated in the highest courts. Yet, because of the recent case of police abuse of that provision, there is a move afoot to try to get that provision of the Evidence Act removed altogether.
It is crucial for the Opposition to make it clear to the Government and the country as a whole that it supports that critical provision. Anything less would be an attempt to exploit the issue for partisan gain. The fight against crime and violence must be a bipartisan one. And again, Vale Royal provides the opportunity for us to arrive at consensus on such a vital area of public policy.
COURT CASES
The third area which is vital for the Vale Royal talks to discuss is the current court case against Daryl Vaz being brought by Mr Dabdoub. As was pointed out many months ago, this case is fraught with dire implications for the political stability of Jamaica. If, as seems likely, Mr Vaz loses that case, then it is likely that Mr Dabdoub would be awarded the seat without the necessity for a by-election.
There are at least two other such JLP MPs who would automatically lose their seats as a result of a ruling going against Mr Vaz. At that point, the Bruce Golding government would cease to have a majority and would fall. This would create a political crisis of untold proportions with a real potential for islandwide violence and upheaval.
Learn from the sad example of Kenya. They said Kenya was a model democracy and an example to all of Africa and the developing world. Kenya was stable and prospering. Chaos and mass violence couldn't happen in Kenya. So they said.
Well, we all know what the reality is. We must face our reality with eyes wide open and understand from now that the road we are currently on in this court case is a road leading to disaster.
It is vital that the Opposition and the Government arrive at an understanding as to how they will act if Mr Vaz loses the case.
Above all, the Opposition must assure the Government and the country that it will not take any step to overturn the Government by resorting to judicial means.
Yet, one hand cannot clap. If the Opposition is to act responsibly, it must have a partner in the Government also acting responsibly.
The Government has not acted responsibly in the PSC affair. There are strong signs that a narrow-minded partisanship prevails outside of Mr Golding's small inner circle. If the PNP is to rise above narrow partisanship, then the Government must set the example. Mr Golding has to rein in the zealots on his own side.
Jamaica faces some extraordinary challenges in the months and years ahead. It will take every ounce of national unity for us to confront these challenges effectively.
We need Vale Royal meetings not only at the top. We need them at every level of the society. This consensus does not mean we do not criticise.
It means that we criticise responsibly with a view to improving the conditions of our country and not just exploiting difficulties for tribal gain.
