John Myers Jr., Business Reporter

Audley Shaw, minister of finance, says the country should position itself for economic opportunities. - File

Finance Minister Audley Shaw is promising growth of 2.0-3.0 per cent in the next fiscal year as he moved to downplay concerns of the effects of a global economic slowdown, and in particular, the looming recession in the United States on the local economy.

According to Shaw, the recession, if it were to occur, could present a number of opportunities for Jamaica.

'Find opportunities'

"Oil price is going to go down if we have a recession. Interest rates are going down, commodity prices are going to moderate, inflation will moderate in the new fiscal year," said the Finance Minister, addressing delegates at the Jamaica Stock Exchange Investments and Capital Markets Conference at the Rose Hall Resort and Country Club in Montego Bay on Wednesday.

"The Americans are ramping up production of grains by putting into production an extra 100 million acres of grains. So ,what we must be doing is not talking about how things are going to get bad - we must find the opportunities."

Shaw also had a different take on how tourism would be affected.

He acknowledged that Americans would be less likely to spend on vacations, but said it was more likely that they would give up the more expensive holidays in the high-priced destinations of Europe, opting instead for cheaper spots closer to home in countries like Jamaica.

According to Shaw, the downturn in the economies of the developed world provides the kind of benefits that could jump-start Jamaica's economy.

On Tuesday, rating agency Moody's said it might downgrade Jamaica's bond ratings if its fiscal position slid.

Fiscal discipline

But the finance minister said the Government was committed to fiscal discipline "that was going to cause Moody's and Bear Stearns and Standard and Poor's and everybody else" to upgrade rather than downgrade the country's credit rating.

He then announced that he would, in April, be signing a US$90 million loan agreement with the Inter-American Development Bank for budgetary support over three years, conditional on Jamaica following certain policy initiatives, including tax reform and growth in production.

john.myers@gleanerjm.com