John Rapley

The long, guessing game over Vladimir Putin's future intentions is now over. Months of speculation as to whether the Russian president would renounce power at the end of his term next year - the constitution requires him to do so - were ended when he threw his support behind the presidential candidacy of Dmitri Medvedev.

Mr. Putin's immense popularity in Russia, as well as the Kremlin's stranglehold on the Russian political system, all but assures Mr. Medvedev victory in next year's elections. Some had speculated that Mr. Putin would appoint a figurehead for a couple of months, fulfilling the legal requirement not to slide into a third term, but then reassume the presidency soon after the election.

That won't now be necessary. Wasting no time, Mr. Medvedev declared that he would make Mr. Putin his prime minister. So while Mr. Putin's job description will change, his position at Russia's helm looks likely to endure.

Anarchy

After years of economic implosion and a seeming slide into anarchy, Russia fell into Mr. Putin's hands at the end of the 1990s. First as prime minister, then as president, Mr. Putin put his country back on a track of rapid growth and political stability.

Not all of this could be credited to skill. Mr. Putin enjoyed amazing luck in that he took office when oil prices were at historic lows. Since then, they have soared, enriching this oil-exporting country.

Nonetheless, to a population made weary by the hardships of the Gorbachev and Yeltsin years, Mr. Putin has seemed a godsend.

He may also see himself that way. A man who broke with the official atheism of his country's communist past, Mr. Putin has restored some of the glory of his Russian Orthodox Church. In this, and in strengthening the state and weakening some of the country's new democratic institutions, Mr. Putin seemed intent on returning Russia to the ways of its tsarist past, when the ruler was believed to be anointed by God.

Restored pride

Mr. Putin also restored some of Russia's badly wounded pride on the international stage. At times, it seemed to his erstwhile Western allies that Mr. Putin took issue with the West just to make the point that Russia was no longer taking orders from anyone.

Be that as it may, while it has not retreated into its communist shell, Russia, under Mr. Putin, has become more insular and less pro-Western.

On the face of it, little will change next year. Mr. Medvedev will win the election, Mr. Putin will become prime minister, and life will continue as usual. Still, some changes may be in the offing. Mr. Medvedev is known as something of a liberal within the Kremlin establishment.

The wish to build a chauvinist Russia that resisted all things Western, which some around Mr. Putin would like to realise, appeared to be set back by the appointment of Mr. Medvedev.

There is, too, the possibility that Mr. Medvedev will be his own man. The expectation in the West is that the authority of the president will be quickly whittled down, with power being gradually transferred to Mr. Putin. Many Russians might not oppose that kind of change. But some Russian commentators argue that Mr. Medvedev could yet do so. In their view, the more likely scenario is that Mr. Putin will slide into history as surely as his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin did. Thus will begin the Medvedev era.

It's difficult to say. Mr. Medvedev is just not a well-enough known quantity. In the short term, though, it seems safe to say that Russia's politics will change much, while changing little.