Tony Becca, Contributing Editor

THE WEST Indies leave for their tours of Zimbabwe and South Africa today.

With a five-match one-day series against Zimbabwe, a five-match one-day series and a three-match Test series against South Africa, it is a safe bet that they will win one and lose two.

Boasting a 27 to four record with one no result against Zimbabwe, the West Indies should be and must be strong favourites to beat a Zimbabwe team which is a far cry from the one which paraded the likes of Andy and Grant Flower, Murray Goodwin, Guy Whittall, Alistair Campbell and Heath Streak, scored 290 for five off 49.1 overs at Chester-le-Street in 2000, and knocked off the West Indies on the way to a showdown with England.

South Africa, however, are a different kettle of fish, and while in their heyday, in the days when they paraded the likes of Viv Richards, Gordon Greenidge and Clive Lloyd, Andy Roberts, Michael Holding, Joel Garner and Colin Croft, the West Indies probably would have, and most likely would have destroyed them, with a record of 27 defeats and only 12 victories in 40 matches in one-day contests, 12 defeats, including a stinging 5-0 whitewash in 1998-99, and only two victories in 19 Test matches, the Windies should and must start as underdogs in that match-up.

West Indians, however, are hoping. In fact, there are some who are bold enough to predict that after taking care of business in Zimbabwe, the West Indies will step into neighbouring South Africa and surprise them, both in the one-day matches and in the Tests.

With anything being possible in the shorter version of the game, victory for the West Indies in the one-dayers would probably not really be a surprise. Based on the records of the two teams in recent years, however, especially so the records while playing each other, and more so in South Africa, based on the figures of the players involved, it would not only be surprising if the West Indies win the Test series - it would also be a shocker.

Impressive

The count of matches played in South Africa shows the home team winning eight out of nine with one ending in a draw, and that is impressive.

What is even more impressive, however, is the man for man comparison.

With Jacques Kallis averaging 58.20 with 29 centuries from 111 matches, Graeme Smith averaging 46.35 with 12 centuries from 58 matches, Herschelle Gibbs 42.63 with 14 centuries from 88 matches, Ashwell Prince 41.54 with six centuries from 33 matches, with A. B. deVilliers 35.52 with three centuries from 32 matches, Hashim Amla 33.50 with three centuries from 17 matches, and Mark Boucher 30.29 with four centuries from 106 matches, South Africa, certainly when it comes to batting, do not compare with champions Australia, but they are way ahead of the West Indies.

Shivnarine Chanderpaul has a strong average of 46 with 16 centuries from 104 matches, but the rest if the line-up is poor. There's Chris Gayle averaging 38.76 with seven centuries from 68 matches, Dwayne Bravo 34.24 with two centuries from 23 matches, Marlon Samuels 27.30 with one century from 24 matches, Devon Smith 24.55 with one century from 20 matches, Denesh Ramdin 24.27 with no century from 19 matches, Runako Morton 23.81 with no century from 10 matches and Narsingh Deonarine 21.40 with no century from four matches.

You can also throw in the injured Ramnaresh Sarwan who is averaging 38.76 with nine centuries from 67 matches, Daren Ganga who's averaging 26.19 with three centuries from 45 matches and newcomer Brenton Parchment whose first-class record reads 34 matches with three centuries and an average of 27.56.

Where, for example, South Africa have four batsmen averaging above 40, the West Indies have only one, and where as South Africa have not one batsman under 30, the West Indies have a handful or more.

Bowling comparison

The bowling comparison is even worse for the West Indies.

For South Africa, Shaun Pollock, with 416 wickets in 107 matches, averages 23.19 with 16 fives in an innings and one 10 in a match, Dale Steyn, with 71 wickets 15 matches, averages 24.38 with six fives and two 10s, Makhaya Ntini, with 319 from 79 matches, averages 27.67 with 17 fives and four 10s, batsman Kallis, with 221 wickets, averages 31.28 with four fives, and Andre Nel, with 106 wickets from 31 matches, averages 31.83 with three fives one 10.

For the West Indies, apart from Ravi Rampaul, who is yet to play a Test match and whose first-class record shows an unimpressive 57 wickets from 21 matches at an average of 29.85, the bowlers' figures read: Jerome Taylor - 35 wickets with two fives from 13 matches at an average of 39.68, Fidel Edwards - 72 wickets with five fives from 27 matches at 43.01, Bravo - 45 wickets with two fives from 23 matches at 43.37, Daren Powell - 56 wickets with one five from 22 matches at 43.62, and Rawl Lewis with one for 388 in four matches at an average of 388.00.

Apart from the fact that the West Indies bowling averages look more like batting averages, apart from the fact that the best of the West Indies is not as good as the worst of South Africa, the total number of wickets, 209, taken by the West Indies specialist bowlers on the way to Zimbabwe, is less than the number taken, not by Pollock, not by Ntini, but by South Africa's top batsman.

A Test match is not played on paper, and it is not decided on past performances. It will take something like a miracle, however, for the West Indies, Chanderpaul or no Chanderpaul, to beat South Africa in the Test series.

In fact, based on the numbers, it promises to be more like a contest between men and boys.