Robert Buddan, Contributor

Weather-affected roads, such as Trinidad Terrace in New Kingston, are among the public concerns facing the Bruce Golding-led government. - Ricardo Makyn/Staff Photographer

Bruce Golding's first address to the nation as Prime Minister last Sunday was designed to assuage concerns over rising oil and local prices, weather-damaged roads, the declining exchange rate, and a spurt in crime. We will see what his first address, as Prime Minister, to the party conference today says. Pressure is already building on the new administration on pocketbook matters, and safety and security. Add to this the questions of conflict of interest associated with certain appointments by the Government or controversies over its objection to other appointments, and election promises to the public sector, which have since been denied; and the problems loom larger.

International crises do explain many of our problems, the question is what can we do about them nationally.' In 1990, British scholar of international relations, Evan Luard, wrote: 'Today, the welfare of ordinary men and women no longer depends primarily on their own national governments. It depends far more on the actions and decisions, far beyond the frontiers of their own state. Political activity devoted to determining which political leader or which political party rules in their own state therefore becomes increasingly irrelevant'. National politics is not irrelevant, but the room for manoeuvre for small states is much narrower than before. The global crises of energy, war, crime and weather, are all directly and indirectly impacting the Caribbean.

World order

The People's National Party has always framed its policies in the context of the world order and has always advocated a new international order. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has preferred to tie Jamaica's fortunes to 'the West', primarily the United States and in the 1980s the Reagan Administration and the International Monertary Fund (IMF) said that there was nothing really wrong with the international order. The problems of development, they said, were national and required national solutions. The JLP accepted this position and embarked upon an IMF-prescribed structural adjustment 'solution' in the 1980s.

The JLP now has to face three facts. One is that the actions and decisions of government have to be made in the context of a world order globalised more deeply than ever. Another is that this makes national responses and solutions more urgent, but they cannot be insular or narrowly Western. Finally, the JLP must fashion a policy that remains committed to friendship with the United States (US), while recognising that a multitude of global problems involve and might even begin with the United States. Jamaica is probably more deeply incorporated into the U.S. global order, warts and all, than any other CARICOM country.

The JLP must now demonstrate that national policy and governing competence matter despite the global roots of many problems. American economic analysts say the U.S. economy is on the verge of a recession and might have already slipped into one. Airline tickets are already increasing because of gasolene prices. This should mean that fewer Americans will want to travel, which bodes ill for the winter tourism season. This comes at a time when the national response sees changes in Jamaica's tourism administration. Confidence in the new chairman of the Jamaica Tourist Board, caught up in conflict of interest questions and fears of the possible politicisation of the tourist industry through the power exercised by influential sponsors of the ruling party's election campaign, as well as a political appointment at the top of the Air Jamaica board, will be tested. The national response must put national interest over sectional ones.

As oil prices jumped from US$77 per barrel this summer to over US$95, the year's oil bill could surpass US$2 billion. National policies matter here too. A clear and unambiguous position on PetroCaribe is needed to safeguard its support for Air Jamaica's gas bill, the expansion of Petrojam, and support for roads and other infrastructure.

Rely on PetroCaribe

Just two years ago, the JLP led reckless demonstrations against oil price increases and consequent cost of living increases when Caribbean leaders were meeting with Venezuela in Jamaica to finalise aspects of the PetroCaribe agreement. Mr. Golding said the paralysing demonstrations were necessary and the Government could not blame rising oil prices for the spate of increases being faced.

Now Mr. Golding's government has no option but to rely on PetroCaribe's discounted prices. PetroCaribe, we must remember, allows us to defer part of the payment of oil from Venezuela and for the savings to be used for important public investments. The Government must also be clear on its Cuban policy. We need to complete the Cuban bulb project, which had been slated for completion by the end of this year, and which Phillip Paulwell said had already saved the country J$480 million per month in energy cost. Whatever cost has been borne by the project is made up for many times over by the savings.

An economic recession in the U.S. will hurt Jamaica and the Caribbean in a number of ways lower tourist visits, less remittances, and fewer jobs for migrants. But in other ways, Jamaica has a cushion. It used to be said that when the U.S. sneezes, other countries catch a cold. This is still true for the region. But not all sectors necessarily suffer as greatly. China's demand for bauxite-alumina means that the Jamaican industry does not have to face the tribulations of earlier recessions. Asian economies are not likely to catch a cold from an American recession and China's demand for bauxite will prop up our industry.

National policy must protect Jamaican markets with China and growing markets with India. Earlier this year, the JLP had criticised our spending on the Cricket World Cup. But our relations with China made it possible to build the Trelawny stadium, which will be a benefit to north coast development, and we hear that the cricket-legacy programme is attracting interest from investors in India to an amount that will easily surpass the cost of hosting the World Cup.

National policy

What this means is that we need a national policy that works with China and India and other regions that provid markets and sources of investments. Trade and Invest and the Cricket Legacy Programme say that Jamaica should receive more than US$400 million in new investments over the next five years and that a likely investment from one company in India would amount to more than what we spent on the Cricket World Cup.

National policy means that in our globalised world of today, Jamaica cannot simply be with the West. Globalisation hurts in some respects, but it also creates new opportunities in others. Our response must stay clear of the historical bias against non-Western countries and of the wars between the U.S., Venezuela, Cuba, China, and others. We need oil at the best price. We need markets in growing economies. We need investments from non-traditional partners. Oil from the Western multinationals comes at the highest price. The largest western market, the U.S., has a weak economy. Investors from India want to put money into film, information communication technology, and coffee in Jamaica. Government, in the meantime, cannot allow itself to be captured by narrow special interests or narrow ideology if it is to be broadminded in pursuing the national interest.

Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona. Email: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm