As it does each time its rule is threatened, the Burmese military responded to anti-government demonstrations with crackdowns. By first sealing the monks who had been leading the demonstrations inside their monasteries; then, cutting off the citizenry's access to the Internet in order to prevent embarrassing images leaving the country; then, insulated from unwanted attention from the rest of the world, opening fire on the crowds in the streets, the generals took the wind out of the opposition's sails.

In consequence, the momentum appears to have shifted in their direction, at least for now. Yet, what they are left to contend with looks dire. As is often the case with military dictatorships, the government is more concerned with order than prosperity. Despite its mineral wealth, the Burmese economy is failing to meet the aspirations of its people. But the generals seem not to care: they are spending lavishly on building themselves a new capital city, hardly the gesture of a government anxious to deploy its scarce resources wisely.

Nevertheless, the future is looking more troubling for the generals than it has in a long time. The sharp glare of international attention has fallen upon Burma at a moment when its chief ally, China, would rather not be seen as shoring up brutal regimes. China's rulers have scarcely discovered a love of democracy and will not run to the aid of Burma's repressed opposition. But with the Olympics less than a year away, Beijing's love of good PR is trumping the Chinese preoccupation with order and non-interference by the West.

At home, meanwhile, Burma's generals face rising discontent. In a region of booming economies, Burma trails badly, and popular discontent with the regime is not going to lessen. Equally, repression of monks in a devoutly Buddhist country will not be quickly forgotten. Moreover, the country is divided politically, and rebel movements may conceivably take advantage of the discontent in the cities to press their own offensives. All the while, Burma's human rights record remains the cause of international condemnation.

The generals really ought to go. Even were their claim - that the military is the only institution able to hold this diverse country together - true, its merit is beginning to ring hollow. It sounds reminiscent of the claims Nigeria's generals used to make as they sank their nation deeper into oppression and poverty. But when Nigeria's generals left, the country did not fall apart.

The best hope for change appears to lie in persuading China and, to a lesser degree, India to take harder lines than they have in the past. Burma's other regional neighbours also enjoy some leverage, and are showing signs of frustration with the military regime. It is to be hoped that Jamaica will join its voice to the international calls for Burma's neighbours to tighten the screws. Locally, Burmese nationals staged street demonstrations in Kingston last week Wednesday outside the Chinese Embassy, calling for an end to support of the military regime. As it tries to augment influence in our own region, China will not want us to infer the wrong lessons of its intentions.