Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

With 36 days to go before the general election on August 27, the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is looking to close the gap between itself and the governing People's National Party (PNP).

The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, conducted on July 14 and 15, placed the PNP and JLP at 40 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, in popular standings.

But according to data from the Johnson poll results, the JLP has been enjoying the last leg of the race, while it is sheer momentum that is taking the PNP forward.

The Golding-led JLP has moved up eight percentage points since July last year in party standings, while the governing PNP has only managed to increase its standing by two points over the same period.

During the last three months both parties have increased the pace, with the JLP's popular standing increasing by seven percentage points, while the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP has gone up by six points.

Johnson's recent poll findings show that Golding's favourability rating has moved up, as has the number of persons who believe he will do a better job as Prime Minister.

In addition, during the past three months, his party has increased its support among young electors - by 16 points in the 18-24 age group and by 10 points in the 25-34 age group.

Commenting on the political dynamics, Johnson points out that as at mid-July, 82 per cent of persons who had voted for the PNP in 2002 said they would do so in the upcoming election.

This contrasts to 77 per cent of JLP voters in 2002 who have now indicated that they will vote again for the party.

"The JLP has more potential voters to tap into than the PNP at this time," explains Johnson. "But everybody is coming home, it's fascinating!"

Political analyst Richard 'Dickie Crawford argues that while the JLP seems to be benefiting more from the long election campaign, "sometimes polls reflect a change in the political situation of the country which may not be long-lasting.

"It would be a bit adventurous to say that the Prime Minister made a mistake in setting the date of the election. The Government may be able to turn the tables again on the JLP," Crawford says, in response to questions by The Gleaner.

Given the political dynamics and the number of days to election, he says it is now shaping up to be a closer race for the control of Gordon House.

"Since both teams are on the road campaigning now, it is going to boil down to who has the most effective campaign strategy and who has the most convincing set of programmes and policies to put to the people of Jamaica," Crawford reasons.

Hyacinth Bennett, the former National Democratic Movement (NDM) president, is inclined to treat poll statistics with the proverbial grain of salt.

"For what it is worth, looking at the movement in the popularity rating of the JLP and PNP over the past year, there appears to be a definite healthier upward growth trend for the JLP than the PNP," Bennett says. "It is left to be seen if over the next month or so this present trend will be sustained."

Gleaner columnist Kevin O'Brien Chang says Johnson's poll results, in relation to the announcement of the election, is "a gear puzzle".

"If you are 10 points ahead in the poll, you don't buy time," Chang argues.

"It is a very curious situation. The last two Gleaner-commissioned polls by Bill Johnson, who is the official PNP pollster, have them leading by seven points on the raw numbers which works out to 10 points out of 100 per cent."

Chang reasons: "No Government in the history of parliamentary democracy, which is 10 points ahead in the polls, has ever given the Opposition time to catch up.Ó

He adds that if the PNP were indeed ahead at the time of the July 8 announcement of the election date, the JLP has been given time to catch up and possibly pass the PNP as they straighten for home.

daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com

If you voted for the PNP or JLP in 2002, would you do so in 2007?

May June July

Source: Bill Johnson polls, 2007