Wilberne Persaud, Financial Gleaner Columnist
Persaud
Over the past few weeksfriends have discussed many questions with me. Also, whenever I have met someone, previously a stranger, who recognises me from my picture in this paper, I have been asked two questions: First, my take on whether the PNP or the JLP will win the upcoming general election, and second, what I think of these new financial houses and the schemes that offer so much return.
I guess I can explain the motivation for both questions, but sadly I can't answer either definitively. I just thought I would express here the response I have given to both.
They are questions that do indeed exercise the minds of a lot of people. I wrote two columns on opinion polling in Jamaica and did an interview - too short - on TVJ's Smile Jamaica: It's Morning Time, based on the same issue. So I can account for the motivation to ask me that question.
But I am not a pollster. Over the years, I have looked at demographics for various purposes. I have also had to do, in my research, surveys, some of which might be classified as opinion polling. I therefore know a bit about the techniques and pitfalls.
Thorny issues
I have also advised on some of the thorny issues that bug pollsters. Last, but not at all least, I have had the benefit of lively, informed debate and interaction with pros in the field.
All I tried to do in those columns was to inject a bit of the science and knowledge accumulated that would allow the reader and listener to assess poll results more sensibly. Everybody knows that with election time fever, emotions run high, leaving space for neither logic nor truth in the position of precedence they ought to occupy.
So with that preamble here's my answer: I really cannot say. I have not done a survey and do not have access in my everyday contacts to a sufficient spread of the population to form a judgement.
Uncommitted people who talk to me seem to have an unclear vision of what it is they want. Those who have obvious leanings towards the PNP have one major issue it seems and that is their length of time in office and they worry about corruption. On the other hand they seem to lack confidence in the slate of JLP candidates so they face a dilemma.
Uncommitted people with obvious leaning to the JLP lament the fact that while being critical of and pointing out the faults of the PNP, they have not found it necessary or felt compelled to issue clear policy statements in pursuit of the job. Note that my comment stresses the uncommitted - I assume the 'base' of the parties is solid.
Finally, I indicate what seems obvious and also what polls tell us: that Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller beats Opposition Leader Bruce Golding by many lengths in personal popularity.
But is the country going to vote as if it were a presidential type contest? If it does, the PNP prevails. To counter this, the JLP strategy is geared at influencing the vote away from the presidential type anointing of a leader. To the extent they can prevail in this, their chances are enhanced.
But to me the question I put to my questioners is this: What of the youngest voters? Are they turned off the system? They are certainly wired away from purely local issues - Internet, text messaging, cable TV - perhaps a third of them worry about their education, two thirds of them worry about jobs, they are short on understanding their history generally and recent political history specifically.
The party that gets them out to vote, it seems to me, is surely going to be the winner. Sorry, but that is all I can add to the discourse except to say, read and interpret the polls with care.
On the other question, I have much more competence to judge but even less data upon which to form such a judgement. I therefore respond to this question with questions of my own. What activity can offer returns of over 120 to 200 per cent per annum?
Where is the growth in the Jamaican economy that provides the basis or backdrop for this financial growth? Can foreign exchange trading of the kind of magnitude that apparently exists actually provide that level of return? So I actually say there are more questions than answers and there is an old aphorism: If it seems too good to be true, trust your instincts, it is not'.
Yet, people may gamble with discretionary income, but to invest lifetime savings in such ventures surely is foolhardy.
wilbe65@yahoo.com
This March 29 Gleaner photo appears to capture the personalities of the country's top leaders. Prime Minister and president of the People's National Party Portia Simpson Miller is charismatic and has a way of connecting with people, while Bruce Golding, Leader of the Opposition and head of the Jamaica Labour Party, is seen more as a thinker with a far more reserved image. To beat Simpson Miller at the polls, Golding will have to convince the electorate to vote for policies over popularism. - File
