LEFT: Leonie Simms (left), administrator at the Office of the Political Ombudsman, assists People's National Party (PNP) representative Lisa Hanna, as she, along with other new PNP representatives, signs the Political Code of Conduct during the party's candidates' meeting at the Jamaica Conference Centre, downtown Kingston, yesterday. - Ricardo Makyn/Staff Photographer
RIGHT: Opposition Leader Bruce Golding (right) bemoans the condition of the Linstead market during a tour of the facility, yesterday. Looking on is Vare Bailey, a vendor. Golding castigated the Member of Parliament for North West St. Catherine, Robert Pickersgill, and the Government for the deplorable state of the market. - Norman Grindley/Deputy Chief Photographer

Byron Buckley, Associate Editor

With election fever rising, core supporters of the governing People's National Party (PNP) and the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), as well as formerly uncommitted electors, have swelled the ranks of both parties.

The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll findings show the PNP and JLP each gaining four percentage points since the May poll results. However, the PNP has maintained its seven-point lead over its rival. In a survey conducted on June 18 and 19 among 1,008 residents in 84 communities islandwide by pollster Bill Johnson, 38 per cent of respondents indicated that they would vote for the PNP, and 31 per cent for the JLP. The number of electors who in May were undecided about their party choice or said they would not vote has decreased from 37 per cent to 29 per cent in June. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus three per cent

"People have moved off the fence and are making up their minds about who they will vote for," comments Johnson. "But the PNP is getting back its traditional support in larger numbers than the JLP," he points out.

Willing to vote

Johnson's recent findings show that 77 per cent of people who voted for the PNP in the 2002 general election are willing to vote again for the party in the upcoming election. This figure increased by six per cent compared to Johnson's findings in May. He says this return of the PNP's traditional supporters is reflected mostly among women.

The ruling party, Johnson found, also has traction among electors age 65 and older. Support in this group moved by nine percentage points since the May poll results.

In direct contrast, Johnson says the the JLP has gained "positive momentum" among the electors in the 18-24 age group, moving up by 14 percentage points since May, while the PNP lost six points.

The JLP's traditional support base has also been aroused - 72 per cent of persons who voted for the party in 2002 now say they will do so again in the upcoming election. This represents a three-per cent increase in the number of JLP voters who said in May that they would vote again for their party.

Interested in change

Johnson's June poll findings also show the ruling PNP gaining positive momentum among electors who did not vote in the last parliamentary election, with the party picking up 11 percentage points since May. The JLP gained four points among thisgroup over the same period.

Despite the seven-point difference in electoral standings between the governing and opposition party, Johnson found that the favourability rating for the PNP candidates (32 per cent) and JLP candidates (30 per cent) was statistically the same.

The unfavourability rating of candidates from both parties was also close: PNP, 39 per cent and JLP, 36 per cent.

Explains Johnson: "Incumbents are in trouble. People are interested in change and they are not enamoured with Members of Parliament of both parties."

Reasons for party support