Orville Taylor, Contributor

In Jamaica, when we are killing a bull, we 'poll' it. The problem is the bull is being released now, in the political silly season, and the truth is becoming as rare a commodity as a piece of bone in a can of bully beef.

Inasmuch as Bruce made a Golding promise of it, Chris Tufton it, Karl Samudafy it, Delroy Chuck it, and Daryl believes that he has a Vaz lead on his opponent, the surveys indicate that the People's National Party (PNP) is leading. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is ringing the bell, its sign of victory, but the PNP's sign is 'a head'.

Based on all the opinions surveys the PNP is smelling victory and given the momentum, the donnette is so far ahead that her party cannot be touched even with a long 'poll'. The pollster, for whom The Gleaner foots the 'Bill,' says the PNP has a decent lead. Anderson, the Don, who misread our popularity but was accurate in the 2002 election, says the comrades have a four per cent lead. It is uncertain what are the results of the last survey from the oldest polling entity because rumours are that they are sealed in 'Stone'.

Speculation

This Heralded speculation that they were suppressed because they showed an eight per cent PNP lead, which was disturbing to their anti-PNP owners. However, the defence was that they were leaked into the public domain and perhaps, to a rival publication. As a result, they lost their economic impact and were shelved. Puzzling, because, despite the close location of my offices to all five of the researchers, none had the courtesy of 'pripping me' they all know that I am trustworthy. In fact, even up to Friday, the team leader revealed as much detail about the findings as his namesake outlined regarding his vision for Jamaican football. In any event, despite the purported leak, we still don't know what the data say.

Furthermore, if the public would have lost interest in one poll result, would one, done concurrently, coincidentally, showing a smaller and negligible lead, be more engaging?

While one can forgive the errant journalist who makes inferences that do not stand up to scientific rigour, the academic is expected to have the highest standard of truth and accuracy of all public thinkers.

Trained and employed in the same faculty that produced the most accurate polls in the history of the western hemisphere, I often take great pride at international conferences when my graduate students impress. Furthermore, undergraduate students of the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work at the University of the West Indies, have far greater research and data analysis skills than the majority of their peers in the American Sociological Association (ASA). For that reason, if the Stone Poll team headed by a former Gleaner editor-in-chief, but comprising almost exclusively UWI social scientists, is inaccurate, they are to be beaten with many stripes.

The confidentiality breach argument is as difficult to swallow as meaty, 'Gory stew' to a vegetarian. The only leaks that exist are in that story. Let's do a poll to see if the public believes it.

Then, in defence of his master, Desmond 'leads the Opposition' against 'Dezman'. Obviously, cognisant that members of his own organisation are associated with employees in other media houses, he should know if there was a really a breach and perhaps the source.

Nonetheless, polls apart, I can 'Audley' agree that it is a disgrace that the PNP is still in power for almost 20 years as it has negative implications for democracy. Given the bungling, scandals and faux pas of the present administration, the hapless JLP should have capitalised and be leading.

Despite all of the successes of the PNP in housing, the reduction of nominal unemployment and the cellphone blitz, its performance in crime and education has been unimpressive. This is a major failure given the direct relationship between education, on the one hand, and the involvement of our youth in violent crimes, on the other. This is so simple that onewonders what happened during the 18 years.

Education in bad shape

Coming to the end of one academic year and anticipating a new term, some suggest that education is in a bad shape. More than 40 per cent of grade-four children are below the requisite standard and men continue to be absent the further up the education ladder one goes. It is, therefore, not surprising that youth unemployment is four times the national average, because our educational system makes them unemployable. Inasmuch as it was the Labourites who produced the flawed system in the 1960s, by creating dead-end schools that stopped at grade nine, and an uncommon system that gave almost no entrance, the PNP had almost two decades to fix it. Had they done that, then bet your bottom dollar that crime would have been much lower.

It is difficult to imagine how a ministry with a bright permanent secretary, proportionally more educators and educated people than Parliament itself, could assign students to two schools that either do not exist or have no realistic chance of existing.

Perhaps the students can be housed in the white elephant in Trelawny. Critics are raking JLP education spokesman Andrew Holness over the coals for his illusive policy of free education. Which is worse? Someone who has no clear idea as to what he is proposing to do, or someone who is given the responsibility of doing it but does not? However, he also slept on the job because he should have been more vigilant.

But that is what happens when a country is election-obsessed for five years. Long campaigns rob the nation of good governance.

Dr. Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work at UWI, Mona.